The 21st Century climate challenge

2Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal worldWhat the world’s poor arefacing is a relentless increasein the risks and vulnerabilitiesassociated with climatetiming and magnitude of these impacts. However,uncertainty is not a cause for complacency. Weknow that climate-related risks are a major causeof human suffering, poverty and diminishedopportunity. We know that climate change isimplicated. And we know that the threat willintensify over time. In chapter 1 we identify catastrophicfuture risks for the whole of humanity asone of the most powerful grounds for urgent actionin tackling climate change. In this chapter wefocus on a more immediate potential catastrophe:the prospect of large-scale human developmentreversals in the world’s poorest countries.That catastrophe will not announce itselfas a ‘big bang’ apocalyptic event. What theworld’s poor are facing is a relentless increasein the risks and vulnerabilities associated withclimate. The source of these incremental riskscan be traced through climate change to energyconsumption patterns and political choices inthe rich world.The climate already figures as a powerfulforce in shaping the life chances of poor people.In many countries, poverty is intimately relatedto repeated exposure to climate risks. For peoplewhose livelihoods depend on agriculture,variable and uncertain rainfall is a potent sourceof vulnerability. For urban slum dwellers, floodspose a constant threat. Across the world, thelives of the poor are punctuated by the risksand vulnerabilities that come with an uncertainclimate. Climate change will gradually ratchetup these risks and vulnerabilities, puttingpressure on already over-stretched copingstrategies and magnifying inequalities based ongender and other markers for disadvantage.The scale of the potential human developmentreversals that climate change will bringhas been heavily underestimated. Extremeclimate events such as droughts, floods andcyclones are terrible occurrences in their ownright. They bring suffering, distress and miseryto the lives of those affected, subjecting wholecommunities to forces beyond their control andproviding a constant reminder of human frailty.When climate shocks strike, people must firstdeal with the immediate consequences: threatsto health and nutrition, the loss of savings andassets, damage to property, or the destruction ofcrops. The short-term costs can have devastatingand highly visible consequences for humandevelopment.The long-term impacts are less visible but noless devastating. For the 2.6 billion people wholive on less than US$2 a day climate shocks cantrigger powerful downward spirals in humandevelopment. Whereas the rich can cope withshocks through private insurance, by selling offassets or by drawing on their savings, the poorface a different set of choices. They may haveno alternative but to reduce consumption, cutnutrition, take children out of school, or sellthe productive assets on which their recoverydepends. These are choices that limit humancapabilities and reinforce inequalities.As Amartya Sen has written: “The enhancementof human capabilities also tends to gowith an expansion of productivities and earningpower.” 6 The erosion of human capabilities hasthe opposite effect. Setbacks in nutrition, healthand education are intrinsically damaging, reducingthe prospects for employment and economicadvancement. When children are withdrawnfrom school to help their parents make upincome losses, or suffer malnutrition because ofreduced food availability, the consequences canstay with them for their whole lives. And whenpoor people suddenly lose the assets they havebuilt up over years, this reinforces their povertyand holds back efforts to reduce vulnerabilityand extreme deprivation in the medium tolonger term. Single climate shocks can thuscreate cumulative cycles of disadvantage thatare transmitted across generations.Climate change matters because it can beexpected to increase the intensity and frequency ofclimate shocks. Over the medium and long term,outcomes will be influenced by the internationalmitigation effort. Deep and early cuts in carbonemissions would diminish the incremental risksassociated with climate change from the 2030sonwards. Until then, the world in general, and theworld’s poor in particular, will have to live withthe consequences of past emissions. That is why,as argued in chapter 4, adaptation strategies are socritical for human development prospects.In this chapter we look at the past impactsof climate shocks on human development74 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008