The 21st Century climate challenge

Measured in terms of aggregate global emissionsthe Kyoto protocol did not set particularlyambitious targets. Moreover, quantitative ceilingswere not applied to developing countries.The decisions of Australia and the UnitedStates not to ratify the protocol further limitedthe size of the intended cuts. The implicationof these exceptions can be illustrated by referenceto energy-related CO 2emissions. Fromthe 1990 base year the commitment madeunder the Kyoto protocol translates into a2.5 percent reduction of energy-related CO 2emissions in real terms by the 2010/2012target date. 69Delivery against the targets has beendisappointing so far. In 2004, overallgreenhouse emissions for Annex I countrieswere 3 percent below 1990 levels. 70However, the headline figure masks twomajor problems. First, since 1999 overallemissions have been on a rising trend, raisingquestions about whether the overalltarget will be achieved. Second, there arelarge variations in country performance(figure 1.14). Much of the overall decline canbe traced to deep reductions in emissions in theRussian Federation and other transitioneconomies—in some cases in excess of 30percent. This outcome owes less to energypolicy reform than to the effects of deepeconomic recession in the 1990s. Emissionsare now rising with economic recovery.As a group, non-transition Annex I parties—broadlythe OECD—have increasedemissions by 11 percent from 1990 to 2004(box 1.3).energy revolution that shaped the industrialrevolution. Even without climate change,the future of fossil-fuel energy systemswould be the subject of intense debate.Energy security—broadly defined as access toreliable and affordable supplies—is an increasinglyprominent theme on the international agenda.Since 2000, oil prices have increased by afactor of five in real terms, to around US$70Figure 1.14Some developed countriesfar short of Kyotocommitments and targetsKyoto 2008–2012 greenhouse gasemissions target (% of 1990 emissions)Greenhouse gas emissions,2004 (% of 1990 emissions) aSpainCanadaAustralia bUnited States bItalyJapanNetherlandsBelgiumEuropean UnionFranceDenmarkUnited Kingdom49Looking ahead, thescenarios for future energyuse and emissions pointunmistakably towardsa dangerous climatefuture, unless the worldchanges course1The 21 st Century climate challengeLooking ahead—locked ona rising trajectoryGermanyPolandLooking back, trends since the 1990reference-point for the Kyoto Protocolare cause for concern. Looking ahead, thescenarios for future energy use and emissionspoint unmistakably towards a dangerousclimate future, unless the world changescourse.Changing course will require a shiftin energy use patterns as far-reaching as the–55.3–40Russian FederationUkraine–20 0 20 40a. Excludes emissions from land use changes. b. Australiaand the United States have signed but not ratified the KyotoProtocol and so are not bound by its targets.Source: EEA 2006 and UNFCCC 2006.HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 53