The 21st Century climate challenge

training and support, to 11 regional centresin the developing world. 30Encouraging as these initiatives have been,the international response has fallen far shortof what is needed. Based on the commitmentsmade by the G8, the Economic Commissionfor Africa and the WMO have drawn upplans requiring a modest US$200 millionof expenditure over 10 years to expand theregion’s observation and infrastructure capacity.31 However, donor support thus far has beenlimited. Resources have been mobilized onlyfor initial scoping exercises—and the G8 hasfailed to monitor progress at subsequent summits.In a review of progress to date, the AfricaPartnership Forum has concluded: “Despitethe G8 commitment and strong support bykey African institutions…the funding of theprogramme has yet to be realized.” 32Infrastructure for climate-proofingThroughout history, communities haveattempted to protect themselves against thevagaries of climate by building infrastructure.Flood defence and drainage systems, reservoirs,wells and irrigation channels are all examples. Noinfrastructure provides immunity from climaticforces. What infrastructural investments cando is to provide partial protection, enablingcountries and people to manage the risks andlimit vulnerability.Climate change has important implicationsfor the planning of infrastructural investments.Rising sea levels, higher temperatures andincreased exposure to floods and storms allaffect the viability of such investments. Currentapproaches to adaptation planning in manydeveloping countries focus on the ‘climate-proofing’of existing investments against incrementalrisk. The following examples, drawn fromNational Adaptation Programmes of Action(NAPAs), illustrate these approaches:• Cambodia estimates that US$10 millionof investment will be required to constructwater gates and culverts for newly rehabilitatedroad networks developed withoutfactoring in increased risks of flooding.• In Bangladesh, projects worth US$23million have been identified by governmentto create a coastal buffer zone in regionsvulnerable to storm surges, with anadditional US$6.5 million to counter theeffects of increasing salinity in coastal soils.In the transport sector, the Governmentestimates that raising an 800 kilometrenetwork of roads by between 0.5 and 1metre to counter sea level rises will costUS$128 million over a 25-year period.• In Haiti the national adaptation planestimates that a budget of US$11 million isneeded for investment in projects to counterwater shortages and the threat of floodingthrough measures to tackle soil erosion.The project-based approach to adaptationplanning set out in NAPAs, which detail onlyimmediate and urgent needs, provides a limitedperspective on the scale of financing requiredfor effective ‘climate-proofing’. In Viet Nam,UN agencies and the Ministry of Agricultureand Rural Development have drawn up acomprehensive strategy for reducing disasterrisk in the Mekong Delta. The strategy buildson assessments of communities and ecologiesvulnerable to climate change, with adaptationplanning integrated into a wider programmefor coastal zone management. It includes investmentsaimed at strengthening drainage systems,reinforcing dykes and trenches around humansettlements and agricultural areas, and supportingthe restoration of mangrove areas. Capitalinvestment costs are estimated at US$1.6 billionbetween 2006 and 2010 and at US$1.3 billionfrom 2010 to 2020. 33Viet Nam’s strategy for disaster riskreduction in the Mekong Delta illustrates threeimportant points of wider relevance inapproaches to adaptation. The first is thateffective adaptation planning in high-riskenvironments requires investments thatare beyond the financing capacities of mostgovernments acting alone. The second is thatadaptation planning requires a long timehorizon—inthe case of the Mekong it is 15 years.Third, adaptation planning is unlikely to succeedif it is approached as a stand-alone exercise. InViet Nam, the Mekong strategy is integrated intothe country’s national poverty reduction strategyand medium-term expenditure framework,Current approaches toadaptation planning in manydeveloping countries focuson the ‘climate-proofing’of existing investmentsagainst incremental risk4Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperationHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 175