The 21st Century climate challenge

4Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperationFigure 4.5US$ million13001200110010009008007006005004003002001000UK annualflood andcoastaldefence(2004–2005)Table 4.1to a total of US$279 million. These funds will bedisbursed over several years. Contrasts with theadaptation effort in rich countries are striking.The German state of Baden-Würtemberg isplanning to spend more than twice as muchas the entire multilateral adaptation effort onstrengthening flood defences. Meanwhile, theVenice Mose plan, which aims to protect thecity against rising sea levels, will spend US$3.8billion over five years (figure 4.5). 63The concern of rich countries to investin their own climate change adaptation is,of course, entirely legitimate. The sustainedand chronic under-financing of adaptationin developing countries is less legitimate, notleast given the role of rich countries in creatingclimate change risks.Aid portfolios under threatHave other donors compensated for theshortfall in aid delivery through dedicatedclimate change adaptation funds? There areproblems in assessing the wider aid effort, notleast because there is no common definition ofwhat represents an adaptation activity. However,detailed analysis suggests that the integration ofadaptation planning into aid policies remains atan early stage.Bilateral and multilateral donors aregradually increasing support for adaptation,from a low base. One review of 10 bilateralagencies accounting for almost two-thirds ofinternational development assistance attemptedto identify projects in which climate changeadaptation was an explicit consideration. Itdocumented total commitments of US$94Total pledgedTotal receivedTotal disbursed (less fees)Adaptation fund(US$ million) (US$ million)(US$ million)Least Developed Countries Fund 156.7 52.1 9.8Special Climate Change Fund 67.3 53.3 1.4Adaptation Fund 5 5 –Sub-total 229 110.4 11.2Strategic Priority on Adaptation 50 50 14.8 aTotal 279 160.4 26a. Includes fees.Note: data are as of 30th April 2007.Source: GEF 2007a, 2007b, 2007c.Developedcountry investmentsdwarfinternationaladaptation fundsVenice floodgate (annually2006–2011)Source: Abbott 2004; DEFRA 2007and GEF 2007.Aggregatedonoradaptationfund pledgesas of June2007(SCCF, LDCF)The multilateral adaptation financing accountmillion over a 5-year period from 2001to 2005—less than 0.2 percent of averagedevelopment assistance flows. 64 Of course, thisfigure captures only what has happened in thepast. There are signs that donors are startingto respond to climate change adaptationneeds. Between 2005 and 2007 the WorldBank’s adaptation-related activity increasedfrom around 10 to 40 projects, for example. 65However, planning and financing for climatechange adaptation remain marginal activitiesin most donor agencies.Failure to change this picture will have consequencesnot just for poverty and vulnerabilityin developing countries but also for aid effectiveness.While most donors have been slow torespond to the challenge of adaptation, their aidprogrammes will be directly affected by climatechange. Rural development programmes, to takean obvious example, will not be immune to theconsequences of changed rainfall patterns. Anincrease in the frequency of droughts in sub-Saharan Africa will impact very directly onprogrammes for health, nutrition and education.And an increase in the severity and frequency ofstorms and flooding will compromise aid programmesin many areas. Media images of schoolsand health clinics being swept away during the2007 floods in Bangladesh graphically capturethe way in which social sector investments canbe compromised by climate-related disasters.Across the developing world large amountsof aid investment are tied up in projects andprogrammes that are vulnerable to climatechange. The OECD’s Development AssistanceCommittee (DAC) has developed a frameworkfor identifying aid activities that are sensitive toclimate change. It has applied that framework toa number of developing countries. In the casesof Bangladesh and Nepal the DAC estimatesthat over one-half of all aid is concentrated inactivities that will be negatively affected byclimate change. 66Using the DAC’s reporting system, we havedeveloped an ‘aid-sensitivity’ analysis for donorportfolios averaged across the period 2001–2005.Broadly, we identify development assistanceactivities that might be considered vulnerableto various levels of climate change risk. The190 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008