The 21st Century climate challenge

CHAPTER1The 21 st Century climate challenge1The supreme reality ofour time is the spectre ofdangerous climate changeEaster Island in the Pacific Ocean is one of the most remote locations on Earth.The gigantic stone statues located in the Rono Raraku volcanic crater are all that remainof what was a complex civilization. That civilization disappeared because of theover-exploitation of environmental resources. Competition between rival clans ledto rapid deforestation, soil erosion and the destruction of bird populations, underminingthe food and agricultural systems that sustained human life. 1 The warningsigns of impending destruction were picked up too late to avert collapse.The 21 st Century climate challengeThe Easter Island story is a case study in theconsequences of failure to manage shared ecologicalresources. Climate change is becoming a21 st Century variant of that story on a globalscale. There is, however, one important difference.The people of Easter Island were overtaken by acrisis that they could not anticipate—and overwhich they had little control. Today, ignoranceis no defence. We have the evidence, we have theresources to avert crisis, and we know the consequencesof carrying on with business-as-usual.President John F. Kennedy once remarkedthat “the supreme reality of our time is ourindivisibility and our common vulnerabilityon this planet”. 2 He was speaking in 1963 inthe aftermath of the Cuban missile crisis at theheight of the Cold War. The world was livingwith the spectre of nuclear holocaust. Fourdecades on, the supreme reality of our time isthe spectre of dangerous climate change.That spectre confronts us with the threatof a twin catastrophe. The first is an immediatethreat to human development. Climate changeaffects all people in all countries. However, theworld’s poorest people are on the front line.They stand most directly in harm’s way—andthey have the least resources to cope. This firstcatastrophe is not a distant future scenario. Itis unfolding today, slowing progress towardsthe Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)and deepening inequalities within and acrosscountries. Left unattended, it will lead tohuman development reversals throughout the21 st Century.The second catastrophe is located in the future.Like the threat of nuclear confrontationduring the Cold War, climate change posesrisks not just for the world’s poor, but for theentire planet—and for future generations. Ourcurrent path offers a one-way route to ecologicaldisaster. There are uncertainties relating to thespeed of warming, and to the exact timing andforms of the impacts. But the risks associatedwith accelerated disintegration of the Earth’sgreat ice sheets, the warming of the oceans, thecollapse of rainforest systems and other possibleoutcomes are real. They have the potential to setin train processes that could recast the humanand physical geography of our planet.Our generation has the means—andthe responsibility—to avert that outcome.Immediate risks are heavily skewed towardsthe world’s poorest countries and their mostvulnerable citizens. However, there are no riskfree havens over the long term. Rich countriesand people not on the front line of the unfoldingdisaster will ultimately be affected. That iswhy precautionary climate change mitigation isHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 21