The 21st Century climate challenge

Planning for adaptation4.1 The national challengeto climate change is afast-growing industry in4Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperationdeveloped countriesAll countries will have to adapt to climatechange. How they adapt, and the choices open topeople and governments, will be determined bymany factors. The nature of the risks associatedwith climate change varies across regions andcountries. So too does the capacity to adapt. Thestate of human development, technological andinstitutional capabilities and financial resourcesall play a role in defining that capacity.In some respects, the incremental risk posedby climate change is one of degree. The policiesand institutions that can enable countries andpeople to adapt to climate risks today—socialand economic policies that build capabilities andresilience against ‘climate shocks’, investment ininfrastructural defences against flooding andcyclones, institutions for regulating watershedmanagement—are the same as those that will beneeded to address future threats. However, thescale of these threats poses both quantitative andqualitative challenges. Some countries—andsome people—are far better equipped thanothers to respond.Adaptation in the developed worldPlanning for adaptation to climate change is afast-growing industry in developed countries.National governments, regional planningbodies, local governments, city authorities andinsurance companies are all drawing up adaptationstrategies with a common goal: protectingpeople, property and economic infrastructurefrom emerging climate change risks.Mounting public concern has been onefactor shaping the adaptation agenda. In manydeveloped countries there is a widespreadperception that climate change is adding toweather-related risks. The 2003 Europeanheatwave, the 2004 Japanese typhoon season,Hurricane Katrina and the devastation of NewOrleans, and episodes of drought, floodingand extreme temperature across the developedworld have been among the headline eventsfuelling public concern. Uncertainty over thefuture direction of climate change has donelittle to deter public calls for more proactivegovernment responses.The insurance industry has been a powerfulforce for change. Insurance provides animportant mechanism through which marketssignal changes in risk. By pricing risk, marketsprovide incentives for individuals, companiesand governments to undertake risk reductionmeasures, including adaptation. In both Europeand the United States, the insurance industryhas shown growing concern over the implicationsof climate change for risk-related losses(see chapter 2). Projections pointing to theincreased frequency of extreme flood and stormevents are one source of that concern. In severalcountries, the insurance industry has emergedas a forceful advocate of increased public investmentin ‘climate-proofing’ infrastructure to limitprivate losses. For example, the Association ofBritish Insurers is calling for a 50 percent increasein national flood defence spending by 2011. 1Adaptation in the developed world hastaken many forms. The ‘floating home’ ownersof Maasbommel provide a household-levelillustration of behavioural shift. In other cases,business is being forced to adapt. One examplecomes from the European ski industry. Snowcover in European alpine areas is already inretreat, and the IPCC has warned that, atmiddle elevations, the duration of snow cover isexpected to decrease by several weeks for each1°C of temperature increase. 2 The Swiss skiindustry has ‘adapted’ by investing heavily inartificial snow-making machines. Covering onehectare of ski slopes requires about 3,300 litresof water, and helicopters are used to ferry inthe raw material, which is converted into snowthrough energy-intensive freezing. 3Many developed countries have conducteddetailed studies on climate change impacts.Several are moving towards the implementationof adaptation strategies. In Europe, countriessuch as France, Germany and the UnitedKingdom have created national institutional168 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008