The 21st Century climate challenge

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Selected readingsAnand, Sudhir, and Amartya Sen. 1994. “Human DevelopmentIndex: Methodology and Measurement”. Occasional Paper 12,United Nations Development Programme, HumanDevelopment Report Office, New York. (HDI)——, 1995, “Gender Inequality in Human Development Theoriesand Measurement.” Occasional Paper 19, United NationsDevelopment Programme, Human Development Report Office,New York. (GDI, GEM)——, 1997, “Concepts of Human Development and Poverty:A Multi-dimensional Perspective.” In United NationsDevelopment Programme, Human Development Report1997 Papers : Poverty and Human Development New York.(HPI-1, HPI-2)Bardhan, Kalpana, and Stephan Klasen, 1999. “UNDP’sGender-Related Indices. A Critical Review.” WorldDevelopment 27 (6): 985–1010 (GDI, GEM)United Nations Development Programme, 1995. HumanDevelopment Report 1995. New York: Oxford University Press,Technical notes 1 and 2 and chapter 3. (GDI, GEM)——, 1997, Human Development Report 1997. New York:Oxford University Press. Technical note 1 and chapter 1.(HPI-1, HPI-2)——, 1999, Human Development Report 1999. New York:Oxford University Press. Technical note (HDI, GDI)Klasen, Stephan. 2006. "UNDP's Gender-related Measures:Some Conceptual Problems and Possible Solutions." Journalof Human Development Alternative Economics in Action, 7 (2):243 - 274.HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 361
TECHNICAL NOTE 2Measuring the short and long-termeffects of climate-related disastersHuman development is about expanding freedomsand capabilities. Yet, as explained in chapter2, this process can be derailed by climate-relateddisasters. Besides their immediate costs interms of lives lost and livelihoods disrupted, climate-relatedshocks carry substantial intrinsiccosts that are likely to follow people throughouttheir lives, locking them into low human developmenttraps. Climate change promises to raisethese stakes for billions of vulnerable people.To capture the extent of the threat tohuman development that is embedded in climate-relatedshocks, the short and long-termeffects of being born in a disaster-affected areawere measured. More specifically, some criticaldeterminants of human development outcomeswere examined for children under five years ofage and adult women between the ages of 15and 30, and those who were affected by a disasterwere compared with those who were not.DataData for the research were derived from Demographicand Health Surveys (DHS) and the internationaldisasters database EM-DAT maintainedby the University of Louvain.Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)Th e DHS are household and community surveysadministered by Macro International andpartly financed by the United States Agencyfor International Development (USAID).These surveys collect information on a widerange of socio-economic variables at individual,household and community levels, andare usually conducted every five years to allowcomparisons over time. DHS generally consistof a sample of 5,000–30,000 householdsbut are not longitudinal in design. The surveydesign is representative at national, urban andrural levels.Although their primary focus is on womenaged 15–49, DHS also collect information ondemographic indicators for all members of thehousehold. For children under five years of age,these surveys also collect such monitoring andimpact evaluation variables as health and nutritionindicators.International disasters database EM-DATThe EM-DAT is an international disasters databasethat presents core data on the occurrenceof disasters worldwide from 1900 to thepresent. Disasters in EM-DAT are defined as:“a situation or event which overwhelms localcapacity, necessitating a request to the nationalor international level for external assistance, oris recognized as such by a multilateral agencyor at least by two sources, such as national, regionalor international assistance groups andthe media”. For a disaster to be recorded in thedatabase, it has to meet one or more of the followingcriteria:• 10 or more people are killed;• 100 people or more are reported affected;• A state of emergency is declared;• An international call for assistance isissued.A key feature of this database is that it recordsboth the date of occurrence of a disaster—relativelyrecent ones—its location, andthe extent of its severity through the numberof people affected, the number of casualties andthe financial damage. 1Country selection criteriaFor the purposes of this study, only countrieswhere over 1,000,000 people were reported affectedby a disaster were selected. For children362 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008
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Copyright © 2007by the United Nati
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ForewordWhat we do today about clim
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AcknowledgementsThis Report could n
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Jean-Robert Moret, Koos Neefjes, Ii
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From climate shocks today to depriv
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Figures1.1 Rising CO 2emissions are
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… while preserving it for future
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Climate change providesa potent rem
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The real choice facingpolitical lea
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The world’s poor andfuture genera
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Current investment patternsare putt
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Avoiding the unprecedentedthreats p
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The rapid development anddeployment
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Support for the MDGsprovides anothe
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For the current generation,the chal
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• Create a Climate Change Mitigat
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“One generation plants a tree; th
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1The 21 st Century climate challeng
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1Special contributionClimate policy
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1 The 21 st Century climate challen
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1Box 1.3Developed countries have fa
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Climate shocks:risk and vulnerabili
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CHAPTER2Climateshocks: risk andvuln
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in order to cast a light on future
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Box 2.1Under-reporting climate disa
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Box 2.2The global insurance industr
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Box 2.3Hurricane Katrina—the soci
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human rights of the Inuit. The aim
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have been at least 14% lower (table
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intensify these pressures. In Ethio
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unable to build productive assets,
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Climate modelling exercises point t
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Box 2.7Climate change in Malawi—m
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prominently in low human developmen
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Box 2.8Climate change and China’s
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Box 2.9Melting glaciers and retreat
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enign climate change scenarios poin
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Alaska to Siberia has increased by
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donors to invest in rehabilitation.
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more likely. Evidence from the past
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“We shall require a substantially
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3Avoiding dangerous climate change:
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Table 3.1Emission reduction targets
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Box 3.1Leadership by example in car
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Box 3.2Targets and outcomes diverge
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Box 3.3The United Kingdom's climate
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Box 3.5Reducing carbon intensity in
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Box 3.7Renewable energy in Germany
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Box 3.9Palm oil and biofuel develop
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Box 3.11Decarbonizing growth in Ind
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4Adapting to the inevitable:nationa
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CHAPTER4Adapting to the inevitable:
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Mitigation is one part of a twin st
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structures for adaptation planning.
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national climate change projections
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Adjusted for country context, these
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training and support, to 11 regiona
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must take into account the impact o
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Act guarantees 100 days of employme
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• In Kenya, drought in pastoral a
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Box 4.5Risk insurance and adaptatio
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oad umbrella, rich countries are re
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0.7 percent of Gross National Incom
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vulnerable ecosystems. Actual spend
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ange for that risk extends from a n
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countries. 71 The figures are based
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adaptation will require a high leve
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national and subnational programmes
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NotesChapter 11 Diamond 2005.2 Kenn
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oceans, which cover 70 percent of t
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69 Gurría and Manning 2007.70 OCHA
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Canales Davila, Caridad and Alberto
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———. 2006a. “Building a Glo
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EPA (Environment Protection Agency)
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OECD Development Assistance Committ
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Landau, J.P. 2004. “Rapport à Mo
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Regional Hunger and Vulnerability P
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UNDP (United Nations Development Pr
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Readers guide and notes to tablesHu
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sification, which refers only to th
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Note to Table 1: about this year’
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ences in national price levels. The
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TABLE1Monitoringhuman development:
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TABLE1HDI rank aHumandevelopmentind
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TABLE1aMonitoring human development
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TABLE2HDI rank 1975 1980 1985 1990
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TABLE2HDI rank 1975 1980 1985 1990
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TABLE3HDI rankHuman povertyindex (H
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TABLE4Monitoring human development:
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TABLE5.. . to lead a long and healt
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TABLE5HDI rankTotal population(mill
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TABLE6HDI rankPublic(% of GDP)Healt
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TABLE7. . . to lead a long and heal
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TABLE7HDI rankMDGPopulation usingim
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TABLE9HDI rankHIVprevalence a(% age
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TABLE10.. . to lead a long and heal
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TABLE10HDI rankLife expectancy at b
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TABLE11. . . to acquire knowledge .
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TABLE11Public expenditure on educat
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TABLE12.. . to acquire knowledge .
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TABLE12HDI rankAdult literacy rate(
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TABLE13. . . to acquire knowledge .
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TABLE13HDI rankMDGTelephone mainlin
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TABLE14.. . to have access to the r
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TABLE14HDI rankUS$ billions2005GDPG
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TABLE15HDI rankSurvey yearMDGShare
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TABLE16HDI rankImports of goodsand
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TABLE18HDI rankOfficial development
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TABLE18HDI rankOfficial development
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TABLE19HDI rankPublicexpenditureon
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TABLE19Publicexpenditureon health(%
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TABLE21Unemployedpeople(thousands)E
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TABLE22HDI rankElectricity consumpt
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TABLE22Electricity consumptionper c
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TABLE23Share of TPES aFossil fuels
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TABLE23Share of TPES aFossil fuels
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Page 368 and 369: TABLE35HDI rankFreedom of associati
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Page 374 and 375: Calculating the GDI (continued)Seco
Page 378 and 379: under the age of five countries tha
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Page 382 and 383: individual or household. The Gini i
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The 21st Century climate challenge

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