The 21st Century climate challenge

1Box 1.3Developed countries have fallen short of their Kyoto commitmentsThe 21 st Century climate challengeThe Kyoto Protocol was a fi rst step in the multilateral responseto climate change. It set targets for cutting greenhouse gasemissions against 1990 levels by 2010–2012. With governmentsembarking on negotiations for the post-2012 multilateralframework that will build on the current commitment period, it isimportant that lessons are learned.There are three particularly important lessons. The fi rst isthat the level of ambition matters. Targets adopted under the fi rstcommitment period were modest, averaging around 5 percentfor developed countries. The second lesson is that bindingtargets matter. Most countries are off track for delivering ontheir Kyoto commitments. The third lesson is that the multilateralframework has to cover all major emitting nations. Under thecurrent Protocol, two major developed countries—Australiaand the United States—signed the agreement but did not ratifyit, creating an exemption for the targets. There are also noquantitative targets for developing countries.While it is too early to deliver a fi nal verdict on outcomesunder the Kyoto protocol, the summary record to date onemissions without land-use changes is not encouraging. Most68 countries are off track. Moreover, emissions’ growth hasstrengthen since 2000.Among the preliminary outcomes:• The European Union made average emission reductioncommitments of 8 percent under Kyoto. Actual cuts haveamounted to around 2 percent and European EnvironmentAgency projections suggest that current policies will leave thispicture unchanged by 2010. Emissions from the transport sectorincreased by one-quarter. Emissions from electricity and heatgeneration increased by 6 percent. Large increases in renewableenergy supply will be required to meet the Kyoto targets, but theEuropean Union is falling short of the investments needed tomeet its own target of 20 percent provision by 2020.• The United Kingdom has surpassed its Kyoto target of a 12percent emissions reduction, but is off track to meet a nationaltarget to reduce emissions by 20 percent against 1990 levels.Most of the reduction was achieved before 2000 as a resultof industrial restructuring and market liberalization measuresthat led to a switch from carbon-intensive coal to natural gas.Emissions increased in 2005 and 2006 as a result of switchingfrom natural gas and nuclear to coal (chapter 3).• Germany’s emissions were 17 percent lower in 2004 than in1990. Reductions reflect deep cuts from 1990 to 1995 followingreunification and industrial restructuring in East Germany (over80 percent of the total reduction), supplemented by a declinein emissions from the residential sector.• Italy and Spain are far off track for their Kyoto targets. In Spainemissions have increased by almost 50 percent since 1990,with strong economic growth and increased use of coal powerfollowing droughts. In Italy, the primary driver of increasedemissions has been the transport sector.• Canada agreed under the Kyoto Protocol to target a 6 percentcut in emissions. In the event, emissions have increased by27 percent and the country is now around 35 percent aboveits Kyoto target range. While greenhouse gas intensity hasfallen, effi ciency gains have been swamped by an increase inemissions from an expansion in oil and gas production. Netemissions associated with oil and gas exports have morethan doubled since 1990.• Japan’s emissions in 2005 were 8 percent above 1990 levels.The Kyoto target was for a 6 percent reduction. On currenttrends it is projected that the country will miss its target byaround 14 percent. While emissions from industry have fallenmarginally since 1990, large increases have been registeredin emissions from transportation (50 percent for passengervehicles) and the residential sector. Household emissions havegrown more rapidly than the number of households.• The United States is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol but it hasnot ratified the treaty. If it had, it would have been required toreduce its emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2010.Overall emissions have increased by 16 percent. By 2010projected emissions are 1.8 Gt above 1990 levels on a risingtrend. Emissions have grown across all major sectors despitea 21 percent decline in greenhouse gas intensity of the UnitedStates’ economy, as measured by the ratio of greenhouse gasemissions to GDP.• Like the United States, Australia did not ratify the KyotoProtocol. Overall emissions have grown at around twice the ratethat would have been required had the country participated,with emissions rising by 21 percent since 1990. High levelsof dependence on coal-fired power generation contributed tolarge increases in the energy sector, with CO 2emissions risingby over 40 percent.Looking to the post-2012 period, the challenge is to forge aninternational agreement that engages all major emitting countriesin a long term effort to achieve a sustainable carbon budget for the21 st Century. There is little that governments can do today that willhave signifi cant effects on emissions between 2010 and 2012: likeoil tankers, energy systems have large turning circles.What is needed now is a framework for beating dangerousclimate change. That framework will have to provide a far longertime-horizon for policymakers, with short term commitmentperiods linked to medium-term and long term goals. Fordeveloped countries, those goals have to include emissionreductions of around 30 percent by 2020 and at least 80 percentby 2050—consistent with our sustainable emissions pathway.Reductions by developing countries could be facilitated throughfi nancial and technology transfer provisions (chapter 3).Source: EEA 2006; EIA 2006; Government of Canada 2006; IEA 2006c; Government of the United Kingdom 2007c; Ikkatai 2007; Pembina Institute2007a.54 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008