The 21st Century climate challenge

Recommendations1 Develop a multilateralframework for avoidingdangerous climate changeunder the post-2012 KyotoProtocol• Establish an agreed threshold for dangerousclimate change at 2°C above preindustriallevels.• Set a stabilization target for atmosphericconcentrations of CO 2e at 450 ppm (thecosts are estimated at 1.6 percent of averageglobal GDP to 2030).• Agree to a global sustainable emissionspathway aimed at 50 percent reductionsof greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 from1990 levels.• Targets under the current Kyoto commitmentperiod implemented by developedcountries, with a further agreement to cutgreenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 percentby 2050, with 20–30 percent cuts by2020.• Major emitters in developing countries toaim at an emissions trajectory that peaks in2020, with 20 percent cuts by 2050.2 Put in place policies forsustainable carbon budgeting—the agenda for mitigation• Set a national carbon budget in all developedcountries with targets for reducingoverall emissions from a 1990 reference yearincorporated into national legislation.• Put a price on carbon through taxation orcap-and-trade programmes consistent withnational carbon budget goals.• Carbon taxation to be introduced at a levelof US$10–20/t CO 2in 2010, rising in annualincrements to US$60–100/t CO 2.• Adopt cap-and-trade programmes that aimat 20–30 percent cuts in CO 2emissions by2020 with 90–100 percent of allowancesauctioned by 2015.• Utilise revenues from carbon taxation andcap-and-trade to finance progressive taxreform, with reductions in taxes on labourand investments, and the development ofincentives for low-carbon technology.• Reform of the European Union’s EmissionsTrading Scheme to reduce quotas, increaseauctioning and limit windfall gains for theprivate sector.• Create an enabling environment for renewableenergy through ‘feed-in’ tariffs andmarket regulation, with a 20 percent targetby 2020 in renewable power generation.• Increase energy efficiency through regulatorystandards for appliances andbuildings.• Reduce CO 2emissions from transportthrough stronger fuel efficiency standardsin the European Union, with a target of120g CO 2/km by 2012 and 80g CO 2/kmby 2020, and more stringent CorporateAverage Fuel Economy Standards (CAFE)in the United States with the introductionof taxation of aviation.• Increase financing, incentives and regulatorysupport for the development ofbreakthrough technologies, with a focus onCarbon Capture and Storage (CCS)—theUnited States should aim at 30 demonstrationplants by 2015, and the EuropeanUnion should have a comparable levelof ambition.3 Strengthen the framework forinternational cooperation• Develop international cooperation toenhance access to modern energy servicesand reduce dependence on biomass, the primarysource of energy for about 2.5 billionpeople.• Reduce the rate of increase in carbon emissionsin developing countries throughstrengthened energy sector reforms, backedby finance and technology transfer.HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 17