The 21st Century climate challenge

Adjusted for country context, these are thetype of questions being asked of governmentsacross the developing world. Providinganswers requires vastly strengthened capacityin risk assessment and resilience planning.While an international response is emergingthrough mechanisms such as the GlobalEnvironmental Facility (GEF), that responseremains under–financed, poorly coordinatedand weakly managed.Successful adaptation planning will requirea transformational change in government practices.Reactive measures are guaranteed to proveinsufficient, as are responses that fail to addresstransboundary climate change impacts throughregional cooperation. But, the greatest transformationis required in planning for humandevelopment and poverty reduction. Buildingthe resilience and coping capacity of the poorestand more vulnerable sections of the society willrequire something more than rhetoric pledges tothe MDGs and pro-poor growth. It will requirea fundamental reappraisal of poverty reductionstrategies backed by a commitment to enhancedequity in tackling social disparities.As in other areas, adaptation policies arelikely to be more successful and responsiveto the needs of the poor when the voice ofthe poor identifies priorities and shapes thedesign of policies. Accountable and responsivegovernment and the empowerment of peopleto improve their own lives are necessary conditionsfor successful adaptation, just as they arefor human development. The foundations forsuccessful adaptation planning can be summarizedunder four ‘i’s:• Information for effective planning;• Infrastructure for climate-proofing;• Insurance for social risk management andpoverty reduction;• Institutions for disaster risk management.Information on climate risksIn planning for adaptation to climate change,information is power. Countries lacking thecapacity and resources to track meteorologicalpatterns, forecast impacts and assess risk cannotprovide their citizens with good qualityinformation—and are less able to target thepublic investments and policies that can reducevulnerability.At a global level there is an inverse relationshipbetween climate change risk exposureand information. The IPCC acknowledgesthat current climate models for Africa provideinsufficient information to downscale dataon rainfall, the spatial distribution of tropicalcyclones and the occurrence of droughts. Onereason for this is that the region has the world’slowest density of meteorological stations, withone site for every 25,460 km2—one-eighth ofthe minimum level recommended by the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO). 23 TheNetherlands, by way of contrast, has one site forevery 716 km 2 —four times above the WMOminimum (figure 4.2).Inequalities in climate monitoringinfrastructure are intimately linked to widerdisparities. Opportunities in education andtraining are critical for the development ofmeteorological infrastructure and the conductof relevant research. In countries with restricted Adaptation policies arelikely to be more successfuland responsive to theneeds of the poor when thevoice of the poor identifiespriorities and shapesthe design of policies4Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperationHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 173