The 21st Century climate challenge

1The 21 st Century climate challengecountries. At one level, the process of convergenceis real. Developing countries account for arising share of global emissions. In 2004, theyaccounted for 42 percent of energy-related CO 2emissions, compared to around 20 percent in1990 (appendix table). China may be about toovertake the United States as the world’s largestemitter and India is now the world’s fourthlargest emitter. By 2030 developing countriesare projected to account for just over half oftotal emissions. 54Factoring in deforestation reconfiguresthe global CO 2emissions league table. Ifthe world’s rainforests were a country, thatcountry would stand at the top of the world’sleague table for CO 2emissions. Taking intoaccount just emissions from deforestation,Indonesia, would rank as the third largestsource of annual CO 2emissions (2.3 Gt CO 2)with Brazil ranking fifth (1.1 Gt CO 2). 55 Thereare large interannual variations in emissions,making it difficult to compare countries.In 1998, when El Niño events triggered severedroughts in South-east Asia, an estimated0.8–2.5 billion tonnes of carbon were releasedto the atmosphere through fires in peat forests. 56In Indonesia, land-use change and forestryare estimated to release about 2.5 Gt CO 2eannually—around six times the emissionsfrom energy and agriculture combined. 57 ForBrazil, emissions linked to land use changesaccount for 70 percent of the national total.Convergence in aggregate emissions issometimes cited as evidence that developingcountries as a group need to embark onrapid mitigation. That assessment overlookssome important considerations. Developingcountry participation will be required if globalmitigation is to succeed. However, the extent ofconvergence has been heavily overstated.With just 15 percent of the world population,rich countries account for 45 percent of CO 2emissions. Sub-Saharan Africa also accountsfor around 11 percent of the world population,but represents 2 percent of global emissions.Low income countries as a group account forone-third of the world’s population but for just7 percent of emissions.Map 1.1Mapping the global variation in CO 2emissionsRussian FederationUnited States6.0 Gt COChina25.0 Gt CO21.5 Gt CO 2CO 2European Union4.0 Gt CO Japan21.3 Gt1.4 Gt CO 20.5 Gt CO 2IndiaLatin AmericaNorth AfricaSub-Saharan Africa1.3 Gt CO 20.7 Gt CO 2Energy-related CO 2emissions, 2004 (Gt CO 2)Each country’s size is relative to its annual CO 2emissionsThe size of this square equals 1 Gt CO 2World total29.0 Gt CO2Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply offical endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Dotted lines represent approximately the Line of Control inJammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties.Source: Mapping Worlds 2007, based on data from CDIAC.42 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008