The 21st Century climate challenge

Deforestation is another key area for internationalcooperation. Currently, the world islosing the carbon assets contained in rainforestsat a fraction of the market value they wouldhave even at low carbon prices. In Indonesia,every US$1 generated through deforestation togrow palm oil would translate into a US$50–100 loss if the reduced carbon capacity could betraded on the European Union’s ETS. Beyondthese market failures, the loss of rainforestsrepresents the erosion of a resource that playsa vital role in the lives of the poor, in the provisionof ecosystem services and in sustainingbiodiversity.There is scope for exploring the potentialof carbon markets in the creation of incentivesto avoid deforestation. More broadly, carbonfinance could be mobilized to support the restorationof degraded grasslands, generatingbenefits for climate change mitigation, adaptationand environmental sustainability.Adapting to the inevitable: national actionand international cooperationWithout urgent mitigation action the worldcannot avoid dangerous climate change. Buteven the most stringent mitigation will beinsufficient to avoid major human developmentsetbacks. The world is already committed tofurther warming because of the inertia builtinto climate systems and the delay betweenmitigation and outcome. For the first half of the21 st Century there is no alternative to adaptationto climate change.Rich countries already recognize the imperativeto adapt. Many are investing heavilyin the development of climate defence infrastructures.National strategies are being drawnup to prepare for more extreme and less certainfuture weather patterns. The United Kingdomis spending US$1.2 billion annually on flooddefences. In the Netherlands, people are investingin homes that can float on water. The Swissalpine ski industry is investing in artificialsnow-making machines.Developing countries face far more severeadaptation challenges. Those challenges have tobe met by governments operating under severefinancing constraints, and by poor peoplethemselves. In the Horn of Africa, ‘adaptation’means that women and young girls walk furtherto collect water. In the Ganges Delta, peopleare erecting bamboo flood shelters on stilts.And in the Mekong Delta people are plantingmangroves to protect themselves against stormsurges, and women and children are beingtaught to swim.Inequalities in capacity to adapt to climatechange are becoming increasingly apparent. Forone part of the world—the richer part—adaptationis a matter of erecting elaborate climatedefence infrastructures, and of building homesthat ‘float on’ water. In the other part adaptationmeans people themselves learning to ‘floatin’ flood water. Unlike people living behindthe flood defences of London and Los Angeles,young girls in the Horn of Africa and peoplein the Ganges Delta do not have a deep carbonfootprint. As Desmond Tutu, the formerArchbishop of Cape Town, has argued, we aredrifting into a world of adaptation apartheid.Planning for climate change adaptationconfronts governments in developing countrieswith challenges at many levels. These challengespose systemic threats. In Egypt, delta floodingcould transform conditions for agriculturalproduction. Changes to coastal currents insouthern Africa could compromise the future ofNamibia’s fisheries sector. Hydroelectric powergeneration will be affected in many countries.Responding to climate change will requirethe integration of adaptation into all aspects ofpolicy development and planning for povertyreduction. However, planning and implementationcapacity is limited:• Information. Many of the world’s poorestcountries lack the capacity and the resourcesto assess climate risks. In sub-Saharan Africa,high levels of rural poverty and dependenceon rainfed agriculture makes meteorologicalinformation an imperative for adaptation.However, the region has the world’s lowestdensity of meteorological stations. InFrance, the meteorological budget amountsto US$388 million annually, compared withjust US$2 million in Ethiopia. The 2005G8 summit pledged action to strengthenAfrica’s meteorological monitoring capacity.We are drifting into a worldof adaptation apartheidHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 13