The 21st Century climate challenge

Mitigation is one part of a twin strategy forinsurance under climate change. Investmentin mitigation will provide high returns forhuman development in the second half of the21 st Century, reducing exposure to climaterisks for vulnerable populations. It also offersinsurance against catastrophic risks for futuregenerations of humanity, regardless of theirwealth and location. International cooperationon adaptation is the second part of the climatechange insurance strategy. It represents aninvestment in risk reduction for millions ofthe world’s most vulnerable people.While the world’s poor cannot adapt theirway out of dangerous climate change, theimpacts of global warming can be diminishedthrough good policies. Adaptation actionstaken in advance can reduce the risks andlimit the human development damage causedby climate change.Northern governments have a critical roleto play. When they signed the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in 1992, these governmentsagreed to help “the developing countr(ies)that are particularly vulnerable to the adverseeffects of climate change in meeting costs ofadaptation to those adverse effects”. Fifteenyears on that pledge has yet to be translatedinto action. To date, international cooperationon adaptation has been characterized bychronic under-financing, weak coordinationand a failure to look beyond project-basedresponses. In short, the current frameworkprovides the equivalent of an aid sponge formopping up during a flood.Effective adaptation poses many challenges.Policies have to be developed in the face ofuncertainties on the timing, location andseverity of climate change impacts. Lookingto the future, the scale of these impacts will becontingent on mitigation efforts undertakentoday: delayed or limited mitigation will driveup the costs of adaptation. These uncertaintieshave to be considered in the development ofadaptation strategies and financing plans.However, they do not provide a justificationfor inaction. We know that climate changeis impacting on the lives of vulnerable peopletoday—and we know that things will get worsebefore they get better.In one respect, the developed world hasshown the way. Here, no less than in thedeveloping world, governments and peoplehave to deal with climate change uncertainty.But that uncertainty has not acted as a barrierto large-scale investment in infrastructure,or to the development of broader adaptationcapacities. As the primary architects ofthe dangerous climate change problem, thegovernments and citizens of the rich worldcannot apply one rule at home and anotherto the vulnerable communities that are theprospective victims of their actions. Watchingthe consequences of dangerous climate changeunfold in developing countries from behindelaborate climate defence systems is not justethically indefensible. It is also a prescriptionfor a widening gap between the world’shaves and have-nots, and for mass resentmentand anger—outcomes that will have securityimplications for all countries.This chapter is divided into two parts.In the first section we focus on the nationaladaptation challenge, looking at how peopleand countries are responding to the challengeand at the strategies that can make a difference.Climate change poses such a threat because itis exposing vulnerable people to incrementalrisks. Enabling people to manage these risksrequires public policies that build resiliencethrough investment in infrastructure, socialinsurance and improved disaster management.It requires also a strengthened commitment tobroader policies that bolster human developmentand reduce extreme inequalities.In the second section we turn to the roleof international cooperation. There is anoverwhelming case for rich countries to play agreater role in supporting adaptation. Historicresponsibility for the climate change problem,moral obligation, respect for human rights andenlightened self-interest combine to make thiscase. Increased financing for the integrationof adaptation into national poverty reductionplanning is one requirement. Another is theearly development of a coherent multilateralstructure for delivering support.International cooperationon adaptation has beencharacterized by chronicunder-financing, weakcoordination and afailure to look beyondproject-based responses4Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperationHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 167