The 21st Century climate challenge

scenario' in which governments deepen energysector reforms. Under these reforms, it isassumed that overall coal-fired efficiency inChina and India increases from current levels ofaround 30 percent to 38 percent by 2030. Mostof the reforms would build incrementally onexisting measures aimed at reducing demand.It is possible to imagine a more ambitiousscenario. Energy efficiency standards could bestrengthened. Inefficient old plants could beretired more rapidly and be replaced by newsupercritical plants and IGCC technologies,paving the way for an early transition to carboncapture and storage. Of course, these optionswould require additional financing and thedevelopment of technological capabilities. But,they would also deliver results.Looking beyond the IEA scenario, weconsider a more rapid transition to low-carbon,high-efficiency coal-fired power generation. Thattransition would see average efficiency levelsraised to 45 percent by 2030—the level of the bestperformingOECD plants today. We also factorin an additional element: early introduction ofCCS technology. We assume that 20 percent ofthe additional capacity introduced between 2015and 2030 takes the form of CCS.These assumptions may be bold—but theyare hardly beyond the realm of technologicalfeasibility. Measured in terms of climate changemitigation, the emission reductions that wouldresult are considerable:• China. By 2030, emissions in China wouldbe 1.8 Gt CO 2below the IEA referencescenario level. That figure represents aboutone-half of current energy-related CO 2emissions from the European Union. Putdifferently, it would reduce overall projectedCO 2emissions from all developing countriesby 10 percent against the IEA referencescenario.• India. Efficiency gains would alsogenerate large mitigation effects in India.These amount to 530 Mt CO 2in 2030against the IEA reference level—a figurethat exceeds current emissions from Italy.Both of these illustrations underlinethe potential for rapid mitigation throughefficiency gains in the power sectorTable 3.3 Carbon emissions are linked to coal plant technologyApprox. CO 2emissions(g/kWh)Reduction fromChinese average(%)Lifetime CO 2saving(Mt CO 2) aCoal-fired plants:Chinese coal-fi red fl eet average, 2006 1140 – –Global standard 892 22 73.3Advanced cleaner coal 733 36 120.5Supercritical coal with carbon capture 94 92 310.8a. Lifetime savings assume a 1GW plant running for 40 years at an average capacity factor of 85 percent in comparison with a similar plantwith Chinese average effi ciency (currently 29 percent).Source: Watson et al. 2007.(figure 3.8). In important respects, the headlinefigures understate the potential gains forclimate change mitigation through enhancedenergy efficiency. One reason for this is thatour alternative scenario focuses just on coal. Itdoes not consider the potential for very largeenergy efficiency gains and CO 2reductionsthrough wider technological innovations innatural gas and renewable energy, for example.Nor do we factor in the large potential forachieving efficiency gains through technologicalbreakthroughs in carbon-intensive industrialsectors, such as cement and heavy industry(table 3.4). Moreover, we present the gains interms of a static one-year snapshot for 2030,Figure 3.8Increased coal efficiency could cut CO 2emissionsProjected CO 2emissions from coal-fired power generation, 2030 (Mt CO 2)IEA referencescenarioIEA alternativepolicy scenarioEnhancedtechnology scenario aIEA referencescenarioIEA alternativepolicy scenarioEnhancedtechnology scenario aSource: Watson 2007.ChinaIndia0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000a. Based on IEA alternative policy scenario but assumes 45% average efficiency levels in coal power plants and 20% carboncapture and storage (CCS) for new plants (2015–2030)3Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigationHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 149