The 21st Century climate challenge

4Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperationHuman developmentitself is the most securefoundation for adaptationto climate changeNone of these cases provides evidence ofadaptation directly attributable to climatechange. It is impossible to establish causalitybetween specific climate events and globalwarming. What has been established is anoverwhelmingly probable link between climatechange and the type of events—droughts, watershortages, storms and weather variability—thatforce adaptation. Attempting to quantify theclimate change components of the increment torisk in any one case is an exercise in futility. Butignoring evidence of mounting systemic risks isa study in myopia.Human development itself is the mostsecure foundation for adaptation to climatechange. Policies that promote equitable growthand the diversification of livelihoods, expandopportunities in health and education, providesocial insurance for vulnerable populations,improve disaster management and support postemergencyrecovery all enhance the resilienceof poor people facing climate risks. That is whyclimate change adaptation planning should beseen not as a new branch of public policy but asan integral part of wider strategies for povertyreduction and human development.Good climate change adaptation planningwill not override problems linked to inequalityand marginalization. Experience in Kenya isinstructive. For Kenya’s 2 million pastoralists,increased exposure to future drought is areal threat. However, that threat is magnifiedby wider forces that are weakening pastorallivelihoods today, including a policy bias infavour of settled agriculture, the privatizationof water rights and disregard for the customaryrights of pastoralists. In the Wajir districtof northern Kenya, to take one example, theencroachment of crop production into pastoralareas has restricted access to grazing lands,blocked migration corridors and underminedtraditional water-sharing arrangements, leadingto increased overgrazing and reduced milkproduction. 20Framing national adaptation policiesThere are no blueprints for successful climatechange adaptation. Countries face differenttypes and degrees of risk, start from differentlevels of human development and vary widely intheir technological and financial capabilities.While policies for human development arethe most secure foundation for adaptation, eventhe best human development practice will haveto take into account emerging climate changerisks. These risks will magnify the costs of pastpolicy failure and will demand a reassessment ofcurrent human development practice, placing apremium on the integration of climate changescenarios into wider national programmes.So far adaptation planning has been afringe activity in most developing countries.To the extent that strategies for adaptationare emerging, the focus is on climate-proofinginfrastructure. This is a critical area. Butadaptation is about far more than infrastructure.The starting point is to build climate change riskassessment into all aspects of policy planning. Inturn, risk management requires that strategiesfor building resilience are embedded in publicpolicies. For countries with limited governmentcapacity this is an immense task.The magnitude of that task is insufficientlyappreciated. In Egypt, a 0.5 metre increasein sea levels could lead to economic losses inexcess of US$35 billion and the displacementof 2 million people. 21 The country is developingan institutional response through a high-levelministerial dialogue led by the Ministry of theEnvironment. But the sheer magnitude of theclimate risks will require far-reaching policyreforms across the entire economy.Another illustration comes from Namibia. 22Here too climate change poses threats acrossmany sectors. Fisheries provide an example.Commercial fish processing is now one of themainstays of the Namibian economy: it representsalmost one-third of total exports. One ofthe sources of Namibia’s rich fishery revenues isthe Benguela current—a cold water current thatruns along its coast. With water temperatureswarming, there is growing concern that key fishspecies will migrate southwards. This creates amajor adaptation challenge for the fisheries sector.Given the uncertainties, should Namibia beincreasing investments in fish processing? Or,should it be seeking diversity?172 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008