The 21st Century climate challenge

4Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperationDeveloped countries wouldhave to mobilize around0.2 percent of GDP in2015—roughly one tenth ofwhat they currently mobilizefor military expenditureTable 4.3 Investing in adaptation up to 2015• Strengthening the disaster response system.includes, but goes beyond, climate-proofing.Our rough estimate for financing requirementsin 2015 is as follows:• Climate-proofing development investment.Carrying out detailed costing exercises forthe protection of existing infrastructure isa priority. Building on the World Bank’smethodology outlined above and updatingfor 2005 data, we estimate costs for climateproofingdevelopment investments andinfrastructure to be at least US$44 billionannually by 2015. 73• Adapting poverty reduction programmesto climate change. Poverty reduction programmescannot be fully climate-proofed.However, they can be strengthened in waysthat build resilience and reduce vulnerability.National poverty reduction plansand budgets are the most effective channelfor achieving these goals. Social protectionprogrammes of the kind described earlier inthis chapter provide one cost-effective strategy.At their 2007 summit, the G8 leadersidentified social protection as an area forfuture cooperation on development. At thesame time, the incremental risks created byclimate change require a broader response,including, for example, support for publichealth, rural development and community-basedenvironmental protection.These investments will have to be scaledup over time. The 2015 target should be acommitment of at least US$40 billion peryear—a figure that represents around 0.5%of GDP for low income and lower-middleincome countries—for strengtheningsocial protection programmes and scalingup aid in other key areas. 74 Disaster risk reduction investments throughaid will deliver higher returns than postdisasterrelief. However, climate disasterswill happen—and climate change will addto wider pressures on international systemsfor dealing with humanitarian emergencies.How these systems respond will have acritical bearing on human developmentprospects for affected communities acrossthe world. One of the greatest challenges isto ensure that resources are mobilized swiftlyto deal with climate-related emergencies.Another is to finance the transition fromrelief to recovery. Provisions should be madefor an increase in climate-related disasterresponse of US$2 billion a year in bilateraland multilateral assistance by 2015 toprevent the diversion of development aid.The lower bound ballpark figures thatemerge appear large. In total they amount tonew additional adaptation finance of aroundUS$86 billion a year by 2015 (table 4.3).Mobilizing resources on this scale will requirea sustained effort. However, the figures have tobe put in context. In total, developed countrieswould have to mobilize around 0.2 percent ofGDP in 2015—roughly one tenth of what theycurrently mobilize for military expenditure. 75Rich countries’ responsibility weighsheavily in the case for adaptation financing.The impact of climate change in the lives ofthe poor is not the result of natural forces.It is the consequence of human actions.More specifically, it is the product of energyuse patterns and decisions taken by peopleand governments in the rich world. Thecase for enhanced financing of adaptationin developing countries is rooted partly in asimple ethical principle: namely that countrieswhich are responsible for causing harm are alsoEstimated costresponsible for helping those affected deal with% of OECD GDPUS$ billion the consequences. International cooperation20152015on adaptation should be viewed not as an actof charity, but as an expression of social justice,equity and human solidarity.None of this is to understate the scale of thechallenge facing donors. Mobilizing resourceson the scale required for climate changeEstimated donor country costClimate-proofi ng development investment 0.1 44Adapting poverty reduction to climate change 0.1 40Strengthening disaster response (.) 2Total 0.2 86Source: HDRO estimates based on GDP projections from World Bank 2007d.194 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008