The 21st Century climate challenge

ange for that risk extends from a narrow bandof activities that are highly sensitive—such asagriculture and water supply—to a wider bandof affected projects and programmes in sectorssuch as transport. 67The results are striking. Our analysissuggests that 17 percent of all developmentassistance falls into the narrow band of intensiverisk, rising to 33 percent for the wider band.Expressed in financial terms, between US$16billion and US$32 billion are at immediate risk.These figures suggest that ‘climate-proofing’ aidshould be viewed as an important part of theadaptation challenge. Approximate costs forsuch ‘climate-proofing’ aid are around US$4.5billion, or 4 percent of 2005 aid flows. 68 Bearin mind that this represents just the cost ofprotecting existing investments against climatechange, not the incremental cost of using aidprogrammes to build resilience.Beneath these headline numbers, thereare variations between donors. Some majorbilateral donors—including Canada, Germany,Japan and the United Kingdom—face highlevels of risk exposure (figure 4.6). Multilateralagencies such as the African Development Bank(ADB) and the World Bank’s InternationalDevelopment Association (IDA) portfolios arein a similar position.Adapting disaster relief to climate changeClimate-related disasters pose a wider setof challenges for the donor community.Climate change will increase the frequencyand severity of natural disasters. Increasedinvestment in disaster risk reduction is anessential requirement for dealing with thischallenge. However, the reality is that disasterswill happen—and that the internationalcommunity will have to respond throughhumanitarian relief. Increased aid provisionand a strengthening capacity for supportingdisaster recovery are two of the requirements.Disaster relief is already one of the fastestgrowing areas of international aid, with bilateralspending reaching US$8.4 billion—or 7.5percent of total aid—in 2005. 69 Climate-relateddisaster is among the strongest engines drivingthe increase in humanitarian aid, and climatechange will strengthen it still further. Exposureto the risk of climate disasters can be expectedto rise with urbanization, the expansion ofunplanned human settlements in slum areas,environmental degradation and the marginalizationof rural populations. As shown in chapter2, climate-related catastrophes can slow or stallprogress in human development. But respondingto the rising tide of disaster has the potentialto divert aid from long-term development programmesin other areas—a prospect whichpoints to the importance of new and additionalaid resources to cope with future demands.Aid quantity is not the only problem.Timing and fulfilment of pledges presentfurther limitations. In 2004, for example,only 40 percent of the US$3.4 billion inemergency funds requested by the UN wasdelivered, much of it too late to avert humandevelopment setbacks. 70 An increase inclimate-related disasters poses wider threatsto development that will have to be addressedthrough improvements in aid quality. Onedanger is that low-profile ‘silent emergencies’linked to climate change will not receive theattention that they demand. Persistent localdroughts in sub-Saharan Africa generate lessmedia attention than earthquakes or tsunamitypeevents, even though their long-term effectscan be even more devastating. Unfortunately,less media attention has a tendency to translateinto less donor interest and the underfinancingof humanitarian appeals.Post-disaster recovery is another area of aidmanagement that has important implicationsfor adaptation. When vulnerable communitiesare hit by droughts, floods or landslides,immediate humanitarian suffering can swiftlytransmute into long-term human developmentsetbacks. Support for early recovery is vital toavert that outcome. However, while aid flowsfor disaster relief have been rising, recovery hasbeen systematically underfinanced. As a result,the transition from relief to recovery is regularlycompromised by insufficient funds and the nondisbursementof committed resources. Farmersare left without the seeds and credit they need torebuild productive capacities, slum dwellers areleft to rebuild their assets by their own efforts, 4Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperationHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2007/2008 191