2013_14 IDP Review.pdf - KZN Development Planning

6.3 Assessing change and growthFigure 2: Population projection curvesThe previous section focused on the existing development environmentfrom different perspectives. In order to move from the existing intoproposals for future development it is important to understand growth andchanges in the local demographic base and the economic environment.The purpose with this section is therefore to analyse the local populationand households in order to do estimates of expected growth and changesand secondly, to assess the local economy in order to establish thesectors driving the economy and assess the extent and impact ofeconomic change.7. Population and household changes7.1 Population growth expectationsPopulation and household growth is one element that determines the longtermdemand for goods and services. Based on historical populationfigures from 1995 to 2010, a trend analysis was done for each of the fourmunicipalities. Curves were fitted to the data and were selected based onthe best correlation coefficient that could be determined through the leastsquared method. The following polynomial expression were determinedand used to project population figures up to 2015 for each of themunicipalities.Estimated and projected populations1995 2005 2 012 2 013 2 014 2 015 2 020 2 025Endumeni 46 341 53 945 57 709 57 844 57 788 57 502 51 010 30 819Nqutu 157 419 171 510 168 551 167 464 166 200 164 763 155 073 141 495Msinga 162 697 169 691 163 483 162 040 160 434 158 665 147 394 132 132Umvoti 91 979 102 226 122 780 126 082 129 416 132 760 148 856 161 871Total 458 437 497 372 512 522 513 429 513 838 513 690 502 333 466 317The following should be considered:There is a general and overall trend indicating that populationnumbers might decline over the next decade. However, over thepast four years there are indications that the decline might havestabilized in Nqutu and Msinga. Indications are also that thepopulation of Endumeni might start to decline within the next fiveyears. However, the population of Umvoti will generally continue toincrease. The population trends closely correlates with economicexpectations as will be shown later in this section.The priority, policies, and decisions of the LMs and DM can alsoalter the situation. This cannot necessarily be predicted. Forexample, the fact that the councils actively promote the socialinvestment is an impetus for migration in itself. Any event thatdeviate from the historical patterns, or which are not dictated by theprocesses of supply and demand, is difficult to discount in estimatesof future growth and demand for services and land.Draft 2013/14 IDP Review Page 186Prepared by Umzinyathi District Municipality22 March 2013