2013_14 IDP Review.pdf - KZN Development Planning

FChange in annual rates in HIV/AIDS related variablesHIV positive persons, AID and other deathsThe graph shows the following for the UDM area:Population growth is very low and reached negative levels around2007.The natural death rate remained more or less constant over the pastdecade and a half.The HIV/AIDS infection rate declined steeply as did the rate atwhich HIV/AIDS related deaths increased.The real effect is shown in the next graph:7.2 Households and household growthHousehold growth was projected in the same way as population. The householdgrowth expressions for each municipality, derived from the historical data, areshown in the table below.Growth expressionHousehold growth expressionsR-squared valueEndumeni y = -26.348x 2 + 717.16x + 9208.4 0.9968Nqutu y = -34.444x 2 + 1217.9x + 23228 0.9975Msinga y = -0.4398x 3 + 14.87x 2 + 239.18x + 21615 0.9920Umvoti y = -37.864x 2 + 932.57x + 28936 0.9887The next table shows the household projections based on the trend analysis.Estimated and projected number of households1995 2005 2 012 2 013 2 014 2 015 2 020 2 025Endumeni 9 899 13 909 13 581 13 323 13 012 12 649 10 043 6 120Nqutu 24 411 32 457 33 990 33 934 33 808 33 614 31 609 27 882Msinga 29 858 34 640 33 481 33 013 32 469 31 849 27 614 21 485Umvoti 21 869 25 460 28 173 28 511 28 828 29 122 30 156 30 218Total 86 037 106 466 109 225 108 780 108 118 107 235 99 422 85 705Draft 2013/14 IDP Review Page 188Prepared by Umzinyathi District Municipality22 March 2013