2013_14 IDP Review.pdf - KZN Development Planning

AgricultureMiningManufacturingUtilitiesConstructionTradeLogisticsBusinessservicesCommunityservicesGovernmentBasic/Non-basic ration measured at national levelWhen the total district economy is assessed it shows overall good growthin all sectors. The tertiary sector is expected to grow strongly while theprimary sector shows equally strong growth prospects. Although thesecondary sector also grow well it is not at the same rate as the other twosectors.Kwazulu-Natal 0.86 0.15 1.20 0.61 1.10 1.01 1.24 0.93 1.10 0.99Umzinyathi 1.93 0.23 0.91 0.58 1.01 0.95 0.87 0.51 1.29 1.23Endumeni 1.49 0.45 0.85 0.99 1.68 0.87 1.00 0.46 1.09 1.49Nqutu 1.47 0.20 0.71 0.12 0.55 1.22 0.70 0.52 1.12 1.62Msinga 1.40 0.07 0.81 0.31 1.76 0.79 1.40 0.39 1.34 1.45Umvoti 2.57 0.15 1.05 0.57 0.46 0.98 0.65 0.59 1.45 0.848.3 Expected change in the local economyIn paragraph Error! Reference source not found. the structure andhistory of GVA was assessed. The figure below shows the projectedchanges in GVA per sector. The projected trends are based on historicaldata. The projections remain valid if the current economic structures,market conditions, and production factor mixes remain intact. Anystructural changes, changes economic markets, locally and globally, andintervention strategies by government can result in different outcomes.Umzinyathi Projected changes in GVA per sector – GVA1995 to 2025(R’million) in 2005 base year pricesThe following should be noted:All sectors are growing which is exceptional. The overall growth ratefor Umzinyathi over the past decade and a half was 5.2%, which issubstantially higher than the national average of 4.1% per annum. Many of the growth tendencies can be linked back to governmentinvestment and its role in the local economy. It includes theconstruction sector, community services, and obviouslygovernment. One should question the sustainability of an economylargely dependent on government. There might be inherent longtermrisks involved.The projected changes will result in a relatively high growth rate. Thisnaturally subjected to economic cycles. However, it reflects an inherentpotential in the economy to grow although growth is currently declining andlow in the current downward cycle of the national and internal economy.8.4 Employment and job creationThe last aspect that needs to be assessed in terms of economicdevelopment is employment. Employment is a priority for the Council andit is obvious that development and growth strategies will have to supportjob creation.The map shows the distribution and sector composition of employment inthe municipal area. Community and government services dominate theemployment base. This is understandable in the light of government’sefforts to improve access to services in these areas. Employment in theurban area clearly shows a stronger mix due to bigger economic mix ofservices and activities. The worrying aspects are that the primary sector isso small in a predominantly agricultural region.Draft 2013/14 IDP Review Page 191Prepared by Umzinyathi District Municipality22 March 2013