2013_14 IDP Review.pdf - KZN Development Planning

1995 2000 2005 201080 +75 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 +75 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 4-4 000 -3 000 -2 000 -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000-4 000 -3 000 -2 000 -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000-4 000 -3 000 -2 000 -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000-4 000 -3 000 -2 000 -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 00080 +75 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 +75 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 4-15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000-15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000-15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000-15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 00080 +75 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 4-20 000 -15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000-20 000 -15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000-15 000 -10 000 -5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 00080 +75 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 +75 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 480 - 8475 - 7970 - 7465 - 6960 - 6455 - 5950 - 5445 - 4940 - 4435 - 3930 - 3425 - 2920 - 2415 -1910 - 145 - 90 - 4-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000-10 000 -8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000Population is not only about numbers. The structure of the population isequally important and gives insights into aspects such as economicactivity, dependencies, future housing, and service demand. The figuresbelow describe the profile of the population pyramids in five-year cohorts for theLMs in Umzinyathi over ‘n period of 15 years.Source: Calculated from Quantec dataPopulation structure 1991 to 2006Endumeni Nqutu Msinga UmvotiPopulation 1995MaleFemalePopulation 2000MaleFemalePopulation 2005MaleFemalePopulation 2010MaleFemalePopulation 1995MaleFemalePopulation 2000MaleFemalePopulation 2005MaleFemalePopulation 2010MaleFemalePopulation 2000Population 1995The general profile reflects a population structure with a large number ofpeople below the age of 20. In these cohorts, male and female groups aremore or less equally represented. Such a profile should be an indication ofhigh growth levels and increased demand for infrastructure, housing, andservices once these cohorts reach the age of household formationbetween the ages of 20 years and 64 years. However, the following arerelevant:MaleFemalePopulation 2005MaleFemalePopulation 2010MaleFemaleMaleFemalePopulation 2000MaleFemalePopulation 2005MaleFemalePopulation 2010MaleFemaleIn all three LMs there was a clear decline in birth rates as reflectedin the bottom cohort of 2010. This is more prevalent in Endumeniand Umvoti with the trend also emerging in Nqutu and Msinga.There is a clear increase in the number of males (blue bars) inEndumeni. The same happens to a lesser extent in Umvoti but inthe case of Nqutu and Msinga there is a large scale out migration ofeconomically active males. This point to entrenched migrant labourprocesses in Nqutu and Msinga. Out migration, that is, sheddingmales in the economic active categories between 20 and 64 yearsof age, is indicative of underperforming economic and an inability toabsorb labour and hence high levels of poverty. From the cohortsabove 65 years for males, it is also clear that these men do notreturn at retirement age but that they have left the areapermanently. This might have serious social implications and wouldlead to increased dependency ratios in the remaining population.Given the declining birth rates and high levels of permanent maleabsenteeism, one should expect the population to decline over thelong-term as shown in the preceding section.Indications are that Endumeni and Umvoti is to a certain extent busyabsorbing males. The number of males to females in the economicactive cohorts is increasing. This is however, not necessarily, anindication of improved or better economic conditions but might showan expectation of better economic opportunities in these areasrather than in Msinga and Nqutu. If the two economies cannotabsorb these migrant it will increase local poverty levels, add to thesocial burden on the municipality and other social service providers.HIV/AIDS do have far-reaching implications for population growth in thearea. Not only does it affect the growth rate, it also affects the populationstructure of the area.Draft 2013/14 IDP Review Page 187Prepared by Umzinyathi District Municipality22 March 2013