The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the nature of U.S.-China relations in the context of an ongoing power transition between these two great powers, the rise of China and its impact, China’s tortuous experience during its transition to modernity, U.S.-China conflicts over the two nations’ core interests, and the future of the U.S.- China power transition. MAIN ARGUMENTS This analysis holds the following propositions. First, as a result of its genuine development and the impact of its expanding influence on the international system, China and the United States are inescapably engaged in a power transition process, which is, on top of all other issues, about the future of international relations. Second, the history of power transition is filled with bloodshed; yet China and the United States are willing to blaze a new path out of this deadly contest. Third, although China and the United States have exchanged goodwill for a peaceful future, the two nations nevertheless have many contentious and unsettled conflicts of interest that are further complicated by the power transition process and, if not properly managed, can force the two to stumble into unintended war against each other, hence repeating the history of power transition tragedy. Finally, the next 30 years will be a crucial stage for China’s development and the evolution of the U.S.- China power transition. Unfortunately, these titanic changes are overshadowed by the inherently conflicting relations between China and the United States. It ix
will take these two great powers extraordinary efforts to come to terms with the emerging new realities. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS This analysis covers a wide range of issues related to and complicated by the ongoing U.S.-China power transition. It has made an effort to put these issues in perspective. The intent is to remind U.S., as well as Chinese, leaders of the complicated nature of U.S.-China relations under the condition of this power transition and to encourage them to look at the existing conflicts in this new light. It is also intended to persuade the two nations’ leaders to look beyond their parochial positions and take constructive measures to manage this complicated process. The following are some key policy recommendations derived from this analysis. • While the United States and China have always had conflict since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, U.S. and Chinese leaders should always bear in mind that since China embarked on its genuine economic revolution in 1978, the defining character of the U.S.-China relationship has become known as a power transition. The two nations’ policies and interactions therefore must take this factor into account. • Power transition is about the future of international relations. Historically, systematic changes were settled on battlefields. In the current situation, the United States and China have exchanged goodwill to blaze a new path for a peaceful transition. However, this is just the first step in the right direction; as the power transition process unfolds, there will be new x
Page 1 and 2: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
Page 3 and 4: ***** Comments pertaining to this r
Page 5 and 6: Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
Page 7 and 8: with the United States? How does th
Page 12 and 13: and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
Page 14 and 15: ahead, while the United States shou
Page 16 and 17: provocative acts, adamantly opposes
Page 18 and 19: CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
Page 20: Finally, the next 30 years will be
Page 23 and 24: Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
Page 25 and 26: As a general rule, mature nations m
Page 27 and 28: centuries, periodic internal breaku
Page 29 and 30: However, British power gradually de
Page 31 and 32: aftermath of World War I. President
Page 33 and 34: In retrospect, we can make the argu
Page 35 and 36: malized” Japan (presumably so wit
Page 37 and 38: and China. For centuries, China as
Page 39 and 40: expansion. Russia is not happy with
Page 41 and 42: dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
Page 43 and 44: danger of war because the condition
Page 45 and 46: 21. See a recent analysis of Russia
Page 47 and 48: In the face of these daunting chall
Page 49 and 50: West. This sentiment runs deep and
Page 51 and 52: the changes to China appear nonthre
Page 53 and 54: Unfortunately, the emperor and the
Page 55 and 56: the Qing started to rock the dynast
Page 57 and 58: In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
Page 75 and 76:
States in particular (the Chinese E
Page 77 and 78:
now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
Page 108 and 109:
However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
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field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
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U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
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way China develops, and guard again
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• In March 2010, the U.S. State D
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Specifically, they pressed the Chin
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on China on democratic change, dead
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Will China follow the example of U.
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China power transition were to end
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the arms sales business. For all th
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no substitute for the efforts to wi
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With an adjustment in its national
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In addition to these quantitative c
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other items to China that still rem
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ment and containment, with ample ev
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un, this kind of relationship is no
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U.S.-China power transition is a lo
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a preventive war launched by the do
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look Database, April 2010). The Wor
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ary 2006, for a discussion of China
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Chinese critiques of the harmonious
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Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
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year term in prison for what he sai
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66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
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80. See PRC position on this issue
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Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
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The delegates rejected the Soviet a
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York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
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the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
Page 244 and 245:
“Hearing on Maritime Territorial
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the Persian Gulf region will be reg
Page 248 and 249:
our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251:
169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
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Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255:
190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257:
203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 258 and 259:
213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 260 and 261:
232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263:
APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265:
other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267:
The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269:
Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271:
Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
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State, or in the archipelagic water
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APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
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APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
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Japan shall be permitted to maintai
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Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284:
U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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