The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

As a general rule, mature nations maintain a moderate
and steady growth rate. An expanding contender,
however, will experience exponential growth
in its national power, due largely to its rapid internal
economic development. In absolute terms, the dominant
nation is still advancing; but in a relative sense,
it is losing ground to the rising power. The change of
power balance brings the great-power relations into
a war-prone zone. Organski and Jacek Kugler argue
that shifts in the distribution of power create the conditions
for great-power conflict; and war looms when
a contender’s national power narrows its gap with
that of the dominant nation. 5 One probable course of
action is that the dominant nation preempts the upstart
before the latter gets a chance to challenge the
status quo. The other possibility is that the contender,
believing that the dominant power is bent on making
efforts to prevent its rise and that its newfound
power allows it to rival or surpass the dominant nation,
initiates a fight, forcing the dominant nation to
a military showdown. 6 If the contender wins the fight
and overtakes the dominant nation to become the new
and most powerful state in the system, it will usher
the world into a new international order.
History is full of stories of bloody contests for systemic
dominance. The classic case of power transition
and hegemonic war took place between the ancient
Greek states of Athens and Sparta in 431 BC. Athens
was an expanding state. It gained its hegemonic power
first by consolidating numerous small Greek citystates
into the Delian League under Athenian leadership
to fight against Persian invasions and, following
the victory over the Persians, collecting the wealth
from the subject city-states to build up an Athenian
Empire. This expanding Athenian empire went on to
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