The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China Military Contacts: Issues for Congress,” Washington, DC: CRS Report for Congress, May 10, 2011, for a comprehensive discussion of the U.S. positions. 233. There are numerous Chinese writings on this issue. The following are from a few of the better-written ones, unless otherwise referenced. Xu Hui (徐辉), “中美军事互信为何难以建立” (“Why Is It Difficult to Establish U.S.-China Military Mutual Trust?”) 外交评论 (Foreign Affairs Review), No. 2, 2010; Wang Baofu (王宝付), “中美军事关系30年回顾与展望” (“A Review of 30 Years U.S.-China Military Relations and an Outlook for the Future”), 国际问题研究 (International Issues Studies), No. 1, 2009; Luo Yuan (罗援), “中美军事关系 ‘探底回暖’” (“U.S.-China Military Relations Warm Up Again”), 瞭望 (Outlook), January 17, 2011. 234. See Chinese Senior Colonel Dai Xu’s (戴旭) new book, “C” 形包围: 内忧外患下的中国突围 (A “C” Shape Encirclement: China’s Way Out of Its Internal and External Troubles), Shanghai: Wenhui Chubanshe, 2010. See also Chinese Major General Luo Yuan’s (罗援) echo to Dai’s observations at “解放军少将称美已对中国形成 ‘满月形’ 包围” (“PLA Major General Asserts that the United States Has Completed a ‘Full Moon’ Shape of Encirclement around China”),人民网军事 (People’s Net, Military Affairs), July 18, 2010, available from military.people.com.cn/GB/12174174. html. 235. Xu Yongling (徐勇凌), “中国在中美军事交流中展现出前所未有的开放和坦诚” (“China Showed Unprecedented Openness in U.S.-China Military-to-Military Exchanges”), 人民网军事 (People’s Net, Military Affairs), available from military.people.com. cn/GB/15160155.html. 236. PLA National Defense University Center for the Study of CCP History and Construction (国防大学军队党史党建研究中心), “为什么要坚决抵制 ‘军队国家化’” (“Why Must We Vehemently Reject the ‘Nationalization of the PLA’?”) PLA Daily, May 7, 2009. 237. Luo Yuan (罗援), “中美军事交流有四大障碍” (“The Four Major Obstacles in U.S.-China Mil-to-Mil Exchanges”), 国际先驱导报 (International Herald), December 15, 2009. See Kan, “U.S.- China Military Contacts,” for a comprehensive discussion of the restrictions and Congressional oversight on the U.S.-China milto-mil exchanges. 243
238. “U.S. Blocks Taiwan’s F-16 Request Again,” DefenseNews, June 27, 2011; and “Taiwan Expects U.S. to Help with F-16 Upgrades,” DefenseNews, March 29, 2011. 239. “What Is Egyptian Military’s Role Going Forward?” Robert Siegel of National Public Radio, interview with former Army War College Commandant Major General Robert Scales, February 10, 2011. 240. Organski, p. 371. 241. Barry Buzan, “China in International Society: Is ‘Peaceful Rise’ Possible?” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 3, 2010, pp. 5-36. 244
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
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field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
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U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
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way China develops, and guard again
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• In March 2010, the U.S. State D
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Specifically, they pressed the Chin
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on China on democratic change, dead
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Will China follow the example of U.
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China power transition were to end
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the arms sales business. For all th
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no substitute for the efforts to wi
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With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
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Page 214 and 215: ment and containment, with ample ev
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Page 224 and 225: ary 2006, for a discussion of China
Page 226 and 227: Chinese critiques of the harmonious
Page 228 and 229: Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
Page 230 and 231: year term in prison for what he sai
Page 232 and 233: 66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
Page 234 and 235: 80. See PRC position on this issue
Page 236 and 237: Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 238 and 239: The delegates rejected the Soviet a
Page 240 and 241: York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
Page 242 and 243: the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
Page 244 and 245: “Hearing on Maritime Territorial
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Page 248 and 249: our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251: 169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253: Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255: 190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257: 203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 258 and 259: 213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 262 and 263: APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265: other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267: The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269: Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271: Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
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Page 274 and 275: APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277: APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278: Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282: Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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