The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

Another Power Transition in the Making?
The power transition theory provides a very useful
perspective for the understanding of great power
relations. The change of power distribution and the
associated peace and war periods in the 19th century
and the first half of the 20th century lend support to
the central claim of the power transition theory that
preponderance of power maintains international order
and peace and the lack of it breeds great-power
war.
This theory is useful again for world leaders at the
turn of the 21st century, as the international system
is undergoing profound changes. The turning point is
perhaps best set at the end of the Cold War in 1991.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States
stood as the lone superpower. Political commentators
celebrated the eventual arrival of the “unipolar
world” 12 and the “end of history.” 13 Indeed, as their
arguments go, the Cold War was the last contest between
U.S./Western liberalism and other ideologies.
The Western ideal has prevailed; there is no credible
challenge on the horizon; the history of ideological
struggle has come to an end; henceforth, all the nations
in the world would, in one way or another and
sooner or later, turn to democratic government and
market capitalism. The United States was urged to
take advantage of this historic opportunity to consolidate
the Pax Americana and facilitate the world’s rush
to its destiny.
However, as Henry Kissinger puts it, three times
in the last 100 years, the United States had opportunities
to “tower over the international stage” and “recast
the world in its image,” but it met with frustration at
all three occasions. 14 The first opportunity came in the
13