The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

Brazil is blessed with an abundance of natural
resources, a sizeable but manageable population (as
compared to the oversized populations of its fellow
BRICs, China and India), a vast homeland free of territorial
disputes, and a functioning economic and political
system. Although it has 10 neighbors around
its borders, Brazil has no implacable enemy or insurmountable
barrier on its way to prominence (although
its Portuguese heritage requires it to work harder in
the Spanish-speaking neighborhood). Brazil has everything
it needs to become the preeminent power in
South America. Its economic development is pushing
it toward this end.
Brazil’s rise to preeminence in South America challenges
the U.S. position in the Western Hemisphere.
However, Brazil has a good chance to negotiate its
way up. First, Brazil does not have the ambition to
challenge the United States for world leadership, although
its rise will contribute to the relative decline
of the U.S. global position. Brazil qualifies as a satisfied
member of the second-ranked powers by virtue
of being a member of the Organization of American
States. Brazil wants to “reach its deserved spot in the
world” 25 as one of the second-ranked great powers but
not to overtake the United States. Given that the United
States has more challenging interests elsewhere in
the world, it has good reasons to accept Brazil’s rise,
especially if U.S. interests are protected and if Brazil
does it right. The United States can promote Brazil to
become a responsible stakeholder and help preserve
peace and stability in the southern part of the Western
Hemisphere.
Now we have narrowed down the pool of possible
contenders to the lone country of China. By many
accounts, China is a well-qualified contender. It is a
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