The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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The delegates rejected the Soviet amendment by a vote of 46 to 3, with 1 abstention. See U.S. State Department, Conference for the Conclusion and Signature of the Peace Treaty with Japan, Record of Proceedings. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of State, Publication 4392, December 1951, p. 292. 104. The Prime Minister of the newly established Republic of Vietnam, Tran Van Huu, who attended the peace conference at San Francisco, claimed Vietnam’s ownership of the South China Sea islands during his speech at the conference (every delegate had at least one opportunity to speak at the conference, the big powers of course got more than their share of the time to speak there). However, there was no action taken on that claim—it went unnoticed. See U.S. State Department, Conference for the Conclusion and Signature of the Peace Treaty with Japan, Record of Proceedings. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of State, Publication 4392, December 1951, p. 292. By the way, the Vietnam White Paper of 1975 claims that since there was no objection to the Prime Minister’s claim at the conference, it was endorsed. This interpretation cannot stand. See also Li Jinming (李金明), “越南在南海声称的领土争议” (“Vietnam’s Claim on the South China Sea Territory”), 东南亚之窗 (Window of Southeast Asia), No. 1, 2005, for an analysis of the issues. 105. A draft was circulated prior to the conference. China also obtained a copy. 106. Statement by Chinese Foreign Minister Zhou En-lai in Collected Documents on the Foreign Relations of the People’s Republic of China (中华人民共和国对外关系文件集), Beijing, China: World Knowledge Publishing (世界知识出版社), 1961. 107. See Captain Memoir and Vietnam White Paper. 108. International practice gives more weight to effective control than historical claims. See the Island of Palmas Case ruled by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 1925 (a dispute between the United States on behalf of its colony the Philippines and the Netherlands on behalf of its colony Indonesia) sets the example of effective exercise of sovereignty taking precedence over the right of discovery and claim of territorial contiguity (see reference 221
Hague Court Reports 2d 83 [1932] [Perm. Ct. 4rb. 1928]). Other cases such as the Clipperton Island, Eastern Greenland, and the Minqulers and Ecrehos Islands all point to the same requirement of effective control over historical claims. 109. The Republic of China (ROC) did station some troops in the Paracel and Spratly islands. However, following its defeat in the Chinese Civil War, it withdrew the troops. The PRC did not replace them with PLA forces, leaving those islands largely unattended. 110. Chinese Government (PRC) Declaration on China’s Territorial Waters, September 4, 1958, available from news3.xinhuanet. com/ailiao/2003-01/24/content_705061.htm. “Historically belonging to China” (自古以来属于中国) and “China’s intrinsic and inseparable territories” (中国固有和不可分割的领土) are two dogmatic terms in China’s claims to its disputed territories. China and Vietnam share borders. China also owned and ruled Vietnam for well over 1,000 years in history. Can China claim its historical ties and inseparable connections with Vietnam and demand its return to China by saying: “Vietnam historically belongs to China; it is an inseparable part of China” (越南自古以来属于中国;越南是中国不可分割的领土)? International practice (International Court and Arbitration) does not accept congruity as a reason for territorial claim. 111. See Chinese documentation of activities by all relevant parties, including the Europeans, throughout the ages in the South China Sea, available from www.nansha.org.cn. 112. Liselotte Odgaard, Maritime Security between China and Southeast Asia: Conflict and Cooperation in the Making of Regional Order, Farnham, Surrey, England: Ashgate, 2002, pp. 67-76. 113. Due to definitional differences, the number of islands in the Spratlys is different, so is the number of islands each disputant holds. See John C. Baker and David G. Wiencek, eds., Cooperative Monitoring in the South China Sea, Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 2002; Dieter Heinzig, Disputed Islands in the South China Sea, Hamburg, Germany: Hamburg Institute of Asian Affairs, 1976, Marwyn S. Samuels, Contest for the South China Sea, New 222
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
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field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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Page 190 and 191: U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
Page 192 and 193: way China develops, and guard again
Page 194 and 195: • In March 2010, the U.S. State D
Page 196 and 197: Specifically, they pressed the Chin
Page 198 and 199: on China on democratic change, dead
Page 200 and 201: Will China follow the example of U.
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Page 204 and 205: the arms sales business. For all th
Page 206 and 207: no substitute for the efforts to wi
Page 208 and 209: With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
Page 212 and 213: other items to China that still rem
Page 214 and 215: ment and containment, with ample ev
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Page 218 and 219: U.S.-China power transition is a lo
Page 220 and 221: a preventive war launched by the do
Page 222 and 223: look Database, April 2010). The Wor
Page 224 and 225: ary 2006, for a discussion of China
Page 226 and 227: Chinese critiques of the harmonious
Page 228 and 229: Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
Page 230 and 231: year term in prison for what he sai
Page 232 and 233: 66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
Page 234 and 235: 80. See PRC position on this issue
Page 236 and 237: Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 240 and 241: York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
Page 242 and 243: the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
Page 244 and 245: “Hearing on Maritime Territorial
Page 246 and 247: the Persian Gulf region will be reg
Page 248 and 249: our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251: 169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253: Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255: 190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257: 203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 258 and 259: 213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 260 and 261: 232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263: APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265: other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267: The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269: Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271: Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
Page 272 and 273: State, or in the archipelagic water
Page 274 and 275: APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277: APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278: Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282: Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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