The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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Development takes time. Between now and then, Chinese leaders must find ways to get the people in these two regions engaged in the development efforts. At the same time, the Chinese government has to deal with the external forces that are persistently pressing for the separation/independence of the two regions from China. The Chinese leaders are particularly concerned with the U.S. factor in these two explosive problems. They hold that the United States has many reasons to play these two issues as leverage against China; it has the capacity to influence the course of the separation/independence movements; it has been actively involved in the affairs of these two regions; and will continue to be so in the future. Tibet, China, and the United States. The history between Tibet and China can be divided into three broad periods. The first goes from mythical or legendary times to the beginning of the 7th century when Tibet emerged as a unified kingdom in the Himalaya Mountain region. The second period goes from the 630s AD when Tibet under its founding ruler, Songtsen Gampo (松赞干布), and Tang China fought their first of many wars, through the Mongol-ruled Yuan Dynasty (1271- 1368), the Chinese restored Ming Dynasty (1368-1644), the Manchu-ruled Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), the Chinese ROC (1911-49), to 1950, when Tibet became a formal part of the PRC, to the present. There is much controversy involved in the presentation of this long history. Chinese and Tibetans-inexile hold opposing views. Whereas China routinely produces its interpretation of this history to legitimize its rule of Tibet, the Tibetans-in-exile make every effort to dispute China’s claims and provide their own versions of this history to justify their struggle for Tibet independence. Between these two opposing forces 155
stand some Western scholars who try to offer balanced analyses. Nevertheless, all should bear in mind that there is no agreement on this controversial matter. China’s position is repeatedly stated in a number of government White Papers on Tibet and Tibet-related issues. Its key claims are as follows: 168 • Tibet has been an inseparable part of China since antiquity (西藏自古以来就是中国不可分割的一部分). • In 641, the founder of unified Tibet, Songtsen Gampo (松赞干布), negotiated a marriage with Chinese Prince Wen Cheng (文成公主) and a niece of the Chinese Tang Emperor. Tibet and China subsequently became relatives. (Note: by virtue of this marriage, Songtsen Gampo and the Chinese emperor Tang Taizong [唐太宗] had an “uncle-niece relationship” [甥舅关系]. In accordance with Confucius’ teaching, it implied a hierarchical junior-senior relationship between the two nations.) • In 823, Tibet and China signed the Tang (China)- Tubo (Tibet) Peace Treaty (唐蕃长庆会盟). The two therefore were united as one. • In 1271, the Mongols established the Yuan Dynasty and unified a war-torn China. Tibet was also part of the Mongol conquest and subsequently became an administrative region directly under the administration of the central government of Yuan. • Every Chinese government since then—the Ming, Qing, and ROC—has followed the Yuan practice of exercising sovereign and administrative control over Tibet. • In 1727, the Qing assigned the first high commissioner to be stationed in Tibet. 156
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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Page 124 and 125: version to conquer independent nati
Page 126 and 127: • The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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Page 132 and 133: ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
Page 134 and 135: ing. As China becomes more powerful
Page 136 and 137: This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
Page 138 and 139: U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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Page 144 and 145: field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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Page 164 and 165: Indeed, the current fight over thes
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Page 174 and 175: • During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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Page 178 and 179: • In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Page 190 and 191: U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
Page 192 and 193: way China develops, and guard again
Page 194 and 195: • In March 2010, the U.S. State D
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Page 208 and 209: With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
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look Database, April 2010). The Wor
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ary 2006, for a discussion of China
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Chinese critiques of the harmonious
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Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
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year term in prison for what he sai
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66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
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80. See PRC position on this issue
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Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
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The delegates rejected the Soviet a
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York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
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the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
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“Hearing on Maritime Territorial
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the Persian Gulf region will be reg
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our alliance responsibilities,” q
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169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
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Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
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190. The Central Tibetan Administra
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203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
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213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
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232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
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APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
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other activities for the economic e
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The continental margin comprises th
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Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
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Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
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State, or in the archipelagic water
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APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
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APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
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Japan shall be permitted to maintai
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Article 3: Japan will concur in any
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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