The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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• In March 2010, the U.S. State Department released its annual report on world human rights conduct, sharply criticizing China’s human rights record. In response, China’s State Council issued a report denouncing U.S. gun policies, widespread homelessness, and racial discrimination. • In June 2010, China opposed the U.S. plan to send its aircraft carrier strike group to the Yellow Sea to conduct a military exercise. As an ostensible show of resolve, the PLA conducted a live ammunition exercise in the troubled area. • In July 2010, the Chinese government raised the intensity of its opposition to U.S. warships or warplanes entering the Yellow Sea to conduct military exercises. At the same time, the PLA held another military exercise “Warfare 2010” in the Yellow Sea. The United States and South Korea eventually held their joint military exercise in the Sea of Japan. • In July 2010, in Hanoi, Vietnam, U.S. Secretary of State Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi carried out by far the most hottempered spat between the United States and China on the South China Sea issues. • In August 2010, U.S. aircraft carrier USS George Washington made its first visit to Vietnam. It was there to celebrate the 15th anniversary of U.S.-Vietnam relations. U.S. destroyer USS John S. McCain participated in the first U.S.-Vietnam joint naval exercise. The Chinese took these U.S. moves as attempts to turn Vietnam into a counterbalance against China. In an unmistakable response, the three PLA navy fleets held joint exercises in the South China Sea. 177
• In September 2010, the China-Japan trawler incident broke out around the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. • In October 2010, U.S. Secretary of State Clinton stated that the U.S.-Japan defense treaty covers the disputed islands. The United States would come to Japan’s defense were China to use force to settle the dispute. • In November 2010, the two Koreas exchanged artillery fire on and around the South Koreacontrolled Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea. The USS George Washington aircraft carrier strike group and South Korean forces held joint military exercises off the North Korea shores in the Yellow Sea shortly afterwards. • In December 2010, President Obama phoned Chinese President Hu Jintao to warn that China’s muted response to the Korean Peninsula tension was emboldening North Korean provocations and asked China to stop practicing “willful blindness” to the rogue regime’s transgressions. • In January 2011, U.S. Secretary of Defense Gates made an icebreaking visit to Beijing. The PLA, however, made a clumsy test flight of its longspeculated stealth fighter jet J-20. It was an act unmistakably intended to send a defiant message to the United States. While the above events were taking place, “Chinese foreign policy hawks” made their timely debut. These are some high-powered and well-connected individuals with military and foreign policy backgrounds. They follow the examples of their American hawkish counterparts to make provocative calls. 178
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
Page 144 and 145: field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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Page 148 and 149: littoral nations to claim the 200 n
Page 150 and 151: neighbors, especially the Southeast
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Page 156 and 157: Asian Affairs at the National Secur
Page 158 and 159: audience (there were 27 of them at
Page 160 and 161: 15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
Page 162 and 163: compromised by recommending claiman
Page 164 and 165: Indeed, the current fight over thes
Page 166 and 167: and the handover of those islands t
Page 168 and 169: for ruling on maritime disputes: on
Page 170 and 171: Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
Page 172 and 173: Development takes time. Between now
Page 174 and 175: • During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
Page 176 and 177: was erected at the Tibet-China bord
Page 178 and 179: • In October 1950, the newly-foun
Page 180 and 181: Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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Page 184 and 185: equivocally that he does not seek s
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Page 188 and 189: 大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
Page 190 and 191: U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
Page 192 and 193: way China develops, and guard again
Page 196 and 197: Specifically, they pressed the Chin
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Page 200 and 201: Will China follow the example of U.
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Page 204 and 205: the arms sales business. For all th
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Page 208 and 209: With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
Page 212 and 213: other items to China that still rem
Page 214 and 215: ment and containment, with ample ev
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Page 218 and 219: U.S.-China power transition is a lo
Page 220 and 221: a preventive war launched by the do
Page 222 and 223: look Database, April 2010). The Wor
Page 224 and 225: ary 2006, for a discussion of China
Page 226 and 227: Chinese critiques of the harmonious
Page 228 and 229: Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
Page 230 and 231: year term in prison for what he sai
Page 232 and 233: 66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
Page 234 and 235: 80. See PRC position on this issue
Page 236 and 237: Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 238 and 239: The delegates rejected the Soviet a
Page 240 and 241: York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
Page 242 and 243: the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
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“Hearing on Maritime Territorial
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the Persian Gulf region will be reg
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our alliance responsibilities,” q
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169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
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Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
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190. The Central Tibetan Administra
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203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
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213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
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232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
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APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
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other activities for the economic e
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The continental margin comprises th
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Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
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Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
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State, or in the archipelagic water
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APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
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APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
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Japan shall be permitted to maintai
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Article 3: Japan will concur in any
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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