The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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203. The highest-ranking Chinese official to openly advocate the continuation of this strategy is Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. He made this call at a meeting with China’s ambassadors (who were home to report their duties) in 2004. See Wu Jianmin (吴建民), a career Chinese diplomatic, former Chinese Ambassador to France, head of the Chinese Foreign Affairs College, and now influential Chinese think-tank, “把握时代的特点, 走和平发展道路” (“Grasping the Theme of the Era and Continuing on the Road of Peaceful Development”), 外交评论 (Foreign Affairs Review), No. 84, October 2005. 204. Among the American China watchers, David Lampton probably takes the best note of this special character of the U.S.-China relations. See David M. Lampton, Same Bed, Different Dreams: Managing U.S.-China Relations, 1989-2000. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2001. 205. Liu Mingfu. See also President Obama’s remark that the United States must not be number two. “Remarks by the President in State of the Union Address,” U.S. Capitol, Washington, DC, January 27, 2010. John Mearsheimer calls himself an offensive realist in his book, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York: Norton, 2001. 206. There have been many writings about the decline of the United States. However, the United States has shown its power of resilience time and again. There are, therefore, many other writings to warn the world, and China in particular, not to read too much into the “U.S. decline literature.” See Charles Krauthammer, “The Unipolar Moment,” Foreign Affairs, 1991; Wohlforth, “The Stability of a Unipolar World,” International Security, Vol. 24, No. 1, Summer 1999; Charles Krauthammer, “An American Foreign Policy for a Unipolar World,” Washington, DC: AEI Press, 2004, Robert J. Lieber, “Falling Upwards Declinism, the Box Set,” available from www.worldaffairsjournal.org; Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2010. Nye makes the following observation, “Yet it is unlikely that the United States will decay like ancient Rome, or even that it will be surpassed by another state, including China.” See Nye, “China’s Rise Doesn’t Mean War . . .,” Foreign Policy, January/February 2011. For the U.S. relative decline, see Huntington and Toynbee, who were 239
strong advocates. They projected that the United States would be in decline by 2000. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, New York: Random House, 1988; David Calleo, Beyond American Hegemony: The Future of the Western Alliance, New York: Basic Books, 1987; Immanuel Wallerstein, The Decline of American Power, New York: New Press, 2007; Charles Kupchin, The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the Twenty-First Century, New York: A. Knopf, 2002; David Leonhardt, “A Power That May Not Stay So Super,” New York Times, October 12, 2008; John Gray, “A Shattering Moment in America’s Fall from Power,” Guardian, September 28, 2008; Fareed Zakaria, The Post American World, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2008; Fareed Zakaria, “Yes, America Is in Decline,” Time, March 14, 2011. 207. See for example, Sun Dingli (沈丁立), “全球与区域阶层的权力转移: 兼论中国的和平崛起” (“Global and Regional Hierarchies in Power Transition: China’s Peaceful Rise”), 复旦学报 (社会科学版) (Fudan Journal [Social Sciences]), No. 5, 2009. 208. David Lai, “The Coming of Chinese Hawks,” Newsletter Op-ed, Strategic Studies Institute, October 2010. 209. Dai Bingguo (戴秉国), “中国核心利益有三个范畴” (“There Are Three Categories in China’s Core Interests”), available from the Chinese Foreign Ministry Website, accessed on December 7, 2010. 210. The Preamble of the Constitution of the United States declares the following: “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.” 211. Henry Kissinger, “Avoiding a U.S.-China Cold War,” The Washington Post, January 14, 2011. 212. The White House, “U.S.-China Joint Statement,” January 19, 2011. The subsequent quotes are also from this statement. 240
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
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field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
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U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
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way China develops, and guard again
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• In March 2010, the U.S. State D
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Specifically, they pressed the Chin
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on China on democratic change, dead
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Will China follow the example of U.
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China power transition were to end
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the arms sales business. For all th
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Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
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Page 226 and 227: Chinese critiques of the harmonious
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Page 230 and 231: year term in prison for what he sai
Page 232 and 233: 66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
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Page 236 and 237: Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 238 and 239: The delegates rejected the Soviet a
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Page 242 and 243: the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
Page 244 and 245: “Hearing on Maritime Territorial
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Page 248 and 249: our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251: 169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253: Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255: 190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 258 and 259: 213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 260 and 261: 232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263: APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265: other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267: The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269: Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271: Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
Page 272 and 273: State, or in the archipelagic water
Page 274 and 275: APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277: APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278: Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282: Article 3: Japan will concur in any
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