The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION From past experience of power transitions and the current state of the U.S.-China relations, we can discuss three possible outcomes: a deadly contest for change, a peaceful change of guard, or a reluctant accommodation. By many accounts, the last one will be the most likely scenario for the second stage of the U.S.-China power transition. Deadly Contest for Change? Deadly contest has been the rule of power transition in the past. However, there are good reasons that this will not be the case for the U.S.-China power transition. First, China and the United States are both aware of the power transition and agree to take measures to manage this evolving process. The goodwill exchange, no matter how questionable at this point, is a step in the right direction. Second, following this goodwill exchange, the United States and China have established regular high-level communications. The George W. Bush administration and the Chinese government initiated high-level strategic and economic dialogues in 2005. In 5 years, the two sides held six strategic and five economic annual dialogues. 11 In 2009, the Barack Obama administration and its Chinese counterpart combined the two separate meetings into one annual dialogue between the two governments. The First Round of U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue took place in July 2009. China sent a delegation of more than 150 ministerial-level officials, the largest ever, to 81
Washington. In May 2010, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reciprocated with a 200-plus-member high-level official delegation, also the largest-ever U.S. official delegation, to Beijing. 12 These unprecedented high-level dialogues turned out to be innovative measures for the two nations to address a broad range of controversial issues of mutual and global concerns. At the first round, for instance, the key agenda items were climate change, energy cooperation, global financial crisis, arms control, security for Chinese-held U.S. treasury bonds, Chinese currency exchange rate, international economic and financial system reform, and market access. At the second round meetings, the two sides discussed the overall, strategic, and long-term aspects of U.S.-China relations and reached agreements on 26 specific agendas such as energy, environment, science and technology, customs, health, and law enforcement cooperation. 13 In addition to these high-level dialogues, China and the United States have also established more than 60 other regular “Track-II” dialogues at various levels and areas of mutual concern in the last 30 years, especially the last decade. 14 There are also numerous informal dialogues and meetings between the two sides covering practically all areas of mutual concern. At this point, most of these dialogues are still at their “water-testing” stage. The two sides still hold strong suspicions against each other. Each side is protective of its vital interests. The dialogues are opportunities for the two sides to learn about the other side’s positions on the key issues. It will be a long time before the two sides can upgrade these dialogues to a higher level where the two can take each other as partners and take coordinated and cooperative action 82
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
Page 47 and 48: In the face of these daunting chall
Page 49 and 50: West. This sentiment runs deep and
Page 51 and 52: the changes to China appear nonthre
Page 53 and 54: Unfortunately, the emperor and the
Page 55 and 56: the Qing started to rock the dynast
Page 57 and 58: In October 1928, the ROC government
Page 59 and 60: were confident and eager to unleash
Page 61 and 62: those so-called “leaders of capit
Page 63 and 64: Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
Page 65 and 66: system modernization (although the
Page 67 and 68: cieties, penetrating into economics
Page 69 and 70: Just as the world was experiencing
Page 71 and 72: The Coming Conflict with China was
Page 73 and 74: from the Chinese point of view, the
Page 75 and 76: States in particular (the Chinese E
Page 77 and 78: now willingly to become a member of
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Page 81 and 82: Chinese way of thinking to encourag
Page 83 and 84: 18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
Page 85 and 86: 31. See, for example, the United Na
Page 87 and 88: Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
Page 89 and 90: 58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
Page 92 and 93: CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
Page 94 and 95: the significance of their ambitions
Page 96 and 97: ical, economic, security, and cultu
Page 100 and 101: on important issues of the day. Nev
Page 102 and 103: A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
Page 104 and 105: The U.S. push for democratic change
Page 106 and 107: opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
Page 108 and 109: However, the harmonious world const
Page 110 and 111: cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
Page 112 and 113: sonable demands. The CCP, after all
Page 114 and 115: United States stands for the democr
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Page 120 and 121: of war reparation to Japan followin
Page 122 and 123: cultural, and historical interests.
Page 124 and 125: version to conquer independent nati
Page 126 and 127: • The U.S. side declared: The Uni
Page 128 and 129: malization of relations with the Un
Page 130 and 131: the “One-China” principle, whic
Page 132 and 133: ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
Page 134 and 135: ing. As China becomes more powerful
Page 136 and 137: This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
Page 138 and 139: U.S. aircraft carrier group making
Page 140 and 141: earlier, it has been conducting thi
Page 142 and 143: the planned war games, many took th
Page 144 and 145: field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
Page 146 and 147: to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
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U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
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way China develops, and guard again
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• In March 2010, the U.S. State D
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Specifically, they pressed the Chin
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on China on democratic change, dead
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Will China follow the example of U.
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China power transition were to end
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the arms sales business. For all th
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no substitute for the efforts to wi
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With an adjustment in its national
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In addition to these quantitative c
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other items to China that still rem
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ment and containment, with ample ev
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un, this kind of relationship is no
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U.S.-China power transition is a lo
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a preventive war launched by the do
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look Database, April 2010). The Wor
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ary 2006, for a discussion of China
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Chinese critiques of the harmonious
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Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
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year term in prison for what he sai
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66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
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80. See PRC position on this issue
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Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
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The delegates rejected the Soviet a
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York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
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the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
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“Hearing on Maritime Territorial
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the Persian Gulf region will be reg
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our alliance responsibilities,” q
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169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
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Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
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190. The Central Tibetan Administra
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203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
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213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
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232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
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APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
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other activities for the economic e
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The continental margin comprises th
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Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
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Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
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State, or in the archipelagic water
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APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
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APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
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Japan shall be permitted to maintai
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Article 3: Japan will concur in any
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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