The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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ical, economic, security, and cultural institutions with Chinese ones? On the flip side of these concerns, one can also ask the following questions: Can the United States stay on top? Can the United States and the West sustain the extant international order and turn China into a satisfied stakeholder? Finally, in a mutual sense, can the two sides blaze a new path for great power politics? In many ways, the answers to these questions hinge on what China will become and do in the next 20 to 30 years. A better understanding of China’s possible choices will help Chinese and Americans to avoid overstepping on each other’s interest and overreacting to each other’s moves. 79
80 Table 4-1. China’s Modernization Policy Objectives to 2050.
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
Page 45 and 46: 21. See a recent analysis of Russia
Page 47 and 48: In the face of these daunting chall
Page 49 and 50: West. This sentiment runs deep and
Page 51 and 52: the changes to China appear nonthre
Page 53 and 54: Unfortunately, the emperor and the
Page 55 and 56: the Qing started to rock the dynast
Page 57 and 58: In October 1928, the ROC government
Page 59 and 60: were confident and eager to unleash
Page 61 and 62: those so-called “leaders of capit
Page 63 and 64: Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
Page 65 and 66: system modernization (although the
Page 67 and 68: cieties, penetrating into economics
Page 69 and 70: Just as the world was experiencing
Page 71 and 72: The Coming Conflict with China was
Page 73 and 74: from the Chinese point of view, the
Page 75 and 76: States in particular (the Chinese E
Page 77 and 78: now willingly to become a member of
Page 79 and 80: coincidence of interests is a matte
Page 81 and 82: Chinese way of thinking to encourag
Page 83 and 84: 18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
Page 85 and 86: 31. See, for example, the United Na
Page 87 and 88: Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
Page 89 and 90: 58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
Page 92 and 93: CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
Page 94 and 95: the significance of their ambitions
Page 98 and 99: POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
Page 100 and 101: on important issues of the day. Nev
Page 102 and 103: A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
Page 104 and 105: The U.S. push for democratic change
Page 106 and 107: opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
Page 108 and 109: However, the harmonious world const
Page 110 and 111: cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
Page 112 and 113: sonable demands. The CCP, after all
Page 114 and 115: United States stands for the democr
Page 116 and 117: to overstep on each other’s inter
Page 118 and 119: stated in the treaty “with satisf
Page 120 and 121: of war reparation to Japan followin
Page 122 and 123: cultural, and historical interests.
Page 124 and 125: version to conquer independent nati
Page 126 and 127: • The U.S. side declared: The Uni
Page 128 and 129: malization of relations with the Un
Page 130 and 131: the “One-China” principle, whic
Page 132 and 133: ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
Page 134 and 135: ing. As China becomes more powerful
Page 136 and 137: This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
Page 138 and 139: U.S. aircraft carrier group making
Page 140 and 141: earlier, it has been conducting thi
Page 142 and 143: the planned war games, many took th
Page 144 and 145: field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
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U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
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way China develops, and guard again
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• In March 2010, the U.S. State D
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Specifically, they pressed the Chin
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on China on democratic change, dead
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Will China follow the example of U.
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China power transition were to end
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the arms sales business. For all th
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no substitute for the efforts to wi
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With an adjustment in its national
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In addition to these quantitative c
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other items to China that still rem
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ment and containment, with ample ev
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un, this kind of relationship is no
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U.S.-China power transition is a lo
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a preventive war launched by the do
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look Database, April 2010). The Wor
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ary 2006, for a discussion of China
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Chinese critiques of the harmonious
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Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
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year term in prison for what he sai
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66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
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80. See PRC position on this issue
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Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
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The delegates rejected the Soviet a
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York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
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the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
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“Hearing on Maritime Territorial
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the Persian Gulf region will be reg
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our alliance responsibilities,” q
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169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
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Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
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190. The Central Tibetan Administra
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203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
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213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
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232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
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APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
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other activities for the economic e
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The continental margin comprises th
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Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
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Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
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State, or in the archipelagic water
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APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
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APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
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Japan shall be permitted to maintai
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Article 3: Japan will concur in any
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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