The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New York: The Penguin Press, 2011. 214. There is a vast literature about these two “consensuses.” 215. Yan Feng (严锋), “戴秉国: 美国重申尊重中国核心利益, 无意遏制中国” (“Dai Bingguo: The United States Reaffirmed its Respect for China’s Core Interests; It Had No Intention to Contain China”), Xinhua News Agency, May 10, 2011, Reporting from Washington, DC. 216. See the literature on East and Southeast Asian nations engaging China and the United States and holding a balance between the two big powers. 217. See Sun Xuefeng (孙学峰) and Huang Yuxing (黄宇兴), “中国崛起于东亚地区秩序演变” (“The Rise of China and the Evolution of East Asia Regional Order”), 当代亚太 (Journal of Contemporary Asia Pacific Studies), No. 1, 2011. 218. Strongly suggested by the Chinese Foreign Ministry note, “杨洁篪外长驳斥南海问题上的歪论” (Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi Refutes Fallacies on the South China Sea Issue”), July 26, 2010. 219. Sun Hailin (孙海林), “中日关系如何 ‘拆弹’” (“How to Remove the Time Bomb in China-Japan Relations”), 中国企业家 (China Entrepreneur), No. 21, 2010. 220. See Wang Lixiong’s (王力雄) writings on these problems. 221. See the Australian Government’s Review of Australian China Human Rights Technical Cooperation Program. 222. See Pi Mingyong (皮明勇), “关注与超越: 中国军事改革历史透视” (“Focusing and Surpassing: Perspectives on the History of Military Reform in China”), 南方周末 (South China Weekend), June 12, 2003; and David Lai, “Introduction,” Roy Kamphausen, David Lai, and Andrew Scobell, eds., The PLA at Home and Abroad: Assessing the Operational Capabilities of China’s Military, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2010. 223. Deng Xiaoping (邓小平), “Speech at an Enlarged Meeting of the Military Commission of the Central Committee of the 241
Communist Party of China, June 4, 1985,” in Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. III, Beijing, China: The People’s Daily Online available from english.peopledaily.com.cn/dengxp/contents3.html. 224. See David Lai’s discussion of China’s embracement of this concept and strategy in the introduction to the studies in: The PLA at Home and Abroad. 225. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2009. 226. “China Aircraft Carrier Confirmed by General,” BBC News Asia-Pacific, June 8, 2011. 227. See Strategic Studies Institute PLA conference series: Other People’s Wars: PLA Lessons from Foreign Conflicts (2011), The PLA at Home and Abroad: Assessing the Operational Capabilities of China’s Military (2010), Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions Other Than Taiwan (2009), The “People” in the PLA: Recruitment, Training, and Education in China’s Military (2008), Right-sizing the People’s Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China’s Military (2007). All are available on line at www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/. 228. See David Lai, “Introduction,” The PLA at Home and Abroad, for a discussion of China’s revolution in military affairs (RMA) and the PLA’s new mission in the new century. 229. Chinese PLA Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo’s interview with South China Weekend (南方周末) correspondent in Liu Bin (刘斌), “中美军事关系: 从 ‘最好的时光’ 到 ‘浅层交往’” (“U.S.- China Military Relations: From ‘Best Times’ to ‘Low-level Exchanges’”), November 18, 2009. 230. Secretary of Defense William H. Perry, “U.S. Strategy: Engage China, Not Contain It,” Remarks delivered to the Washington State China Relations Council, Seattle, Washington, October 30, 1995. 231. See Dianne E. Rennack, China: Economic Sanctions, Washington, DC: CRS Report for Congress, May 18, 2005. 242
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
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field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
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U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
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way China develops, and guard again
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• In March 2010, the U.S. State D
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Specifically, they pressed the Chin
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on China on democratic change, dead
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Will China follow the example of U.
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China power transition were to end
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the arms sales business. For all th
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no substitute for the efforts to wi
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Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
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Page 214 and 215: ment and containment, with ample ev
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Page 220 and 221: a preventive war launched by the do
Page 222 and 223: look Database, April 2010). The Wor
Page 224 and 225: ary 2006, for a discussion of China
Page 226 and 227: Chinese critiques of the harmonious
Page 228 and 229: Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
Page 230 and 231: year term in prison for what he sai
Page 232 and 233: 66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
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Page 236 and 237: Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 238 and 239: The delegates rejected the Soviet a
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Page 242 and 243: the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
Page 244 and 245: “Hearing on Maritime Territorial
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Page 248 and 249: our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251: 169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253: Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255: 190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257: 203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 260 and 261: 232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263: APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265: other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267: The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269: Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271: Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
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Page 274 and 275: APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277: APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278: Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282: Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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