The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965,” in Bruce Russett, eds., Peace, War, and Numbers, Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, pp. 19-48. J. David Singer, “Reconstructing the Correlates of War Dataset on Material Capabilities of States, 1816-1985,” International Interactions, Vol. 14, pp. 115-132; Correlates of War Project, 2008, “State System Membership List, v2008.1,” available from, correlatesofwar.org. J. David Singer and Melvin Small, CORRELATES OF WAR PROJECT: INTERNATIONAL AND CIVIL WAR DATA, 1816-1992 (Computer file), Ann Arbor, MI: J. David Singer and Melvin Small (producers), 1993, Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (distributor), 1994, DOI:10.3886/ICPSR09905. 12. Charles Krauthammer, “The Unipolar Moment,” Foreign Affairs, 1990/91. 13. Francis Fukuyama, “The End of History?” National Interest, Summer 1989. 14. Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994, p. 805. 15. Ibid., p. 18. 16. Ibid., p. 805. 17. There is a sizeable literature about this point in international relations studies. 18. It is beyond the scope of this analysis to provide a full discussion of this issue. For a debate, see Zhiqun Zhu, U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century: Power Transition and Peace, New York: Routledge, 2006; and Steve Chan, China, the U.S., and the Power- Transition Theory, New York: Routledge, 2008. 19. Tony Halpin, “Brazil, Russia, India and China Form Bloc to Challenge US Dominance,” The Times, June 17, 2009 available from www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article651 4737.ece. 20. “The BRICs: Trillion-Dollar Club,” The Economist, April 15, 2010; “Second Summit Meeting of the BRIC Leaders in Brasilia,” People’s Daily Online, Xinhua News Agency, April 16, 2010. 27
21. See a recent analysis of Russia as a “mediocre power” by John W. Parker, “Russia’s Revival: Ambitions, Limitations, and Opportunities for the United States,” The National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies, Strategic Perspective, Vol. 3, January 2011. 22. Jawaharlal Nehru, The Discovery of India, New York: The John Day Company, 1946. 23. Kautilya, The Arthasastra, L. N. Rangarajan, ed., rearranged, trans., New Delhi, India: Penguin Books, 1992, particularly Part X, “Foreign Policy,” and Part XI, “Defense and War.” 24. Fareed Zakaria, “The Prize Is India,” Newsweek, November 30, 2009. 25. Ministry of Defense, Federative Republic of Brazil, National Strategy of Defense, December 18, 2008, p. 8. 26. Robert Fogel, “$123,000,000,000,000 China’s Estimated Economy by the Year 2040. Be Warned,” Foreign Policy, Vol. 7, January 2010. 28
Page 1 and 2: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
Page 3 and 4: ***** Comments pertaining to this r
Page 5 and 6: Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
Page 7 and 8: with the United States? How does th
Page 10 and 11: SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
Page 12 and 13: and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
Page 14 and 15: ahead, while the United States shou
Page 16 and 17: provocative acts, adamantly opposes
Page 18 and 19: CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
Page 20: Finally, the next 30 years will be
Page 23 and 24: Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
Page 25 and 26: As a general rule, mature nations m
Page 27 and 28: centuries, periodic internal breaku
Page 29 and 30: However, British power gradually de
Page 31 and 32: aftermath of World War I. President
Page 33 and 34: In retrospect, we can make the argu
Page 35 and 36: malized” Japan (presumably so wit
Page 37 and 38: and China. For centuries, China as
Page 39 and 40: expansion. Russia is not happy with
Page 41 and 42: dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
Page 43: danger of war because the condition
Page 47 and 48: In the face of these daunting chall
Page 49 and 50: West. This sentiment runs deep and
Page 51 and 52: the changes to China appear nonthre
Page 53 and 54: Unfortunately, the emperor and the
Page 55 and 56: the Qing started to rock the dynast
Page 57 and 58: In October 1928, the ROC government
Page 59 and 60: were confident and eager to unleash
Page 61 and 62: those so-called “leaders of capit
Page 63 and 64: Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
Page 65 and 66: system modernization (although the
Page 67 and 68: cieties, penetrating into economics
Page 69 and 70: Just as the world was experiencing
Page 71 and 72: The Coming Conflict with China was
Page 73 and 74: from the Chinese point of view, the
Page 75 and 76: States in particular (the Chinese E
Page 77 and 78: now willingly to become a member of
Page 79 and 80: coincidence of interests is a matte
Page 81 and 82: Chinese way of thinking to encourag
Page 83 and 84: 18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
Page 85 and 86: 31. See, for example, the United Na
Page 87 and 88: Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
Page 89 and 90: 58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
Page 92 and 93: CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
Page 94 and 95:
the significance of their ambitions
Page 96 and 97:
ical, economic, security, and cultu
Page 98 and 99:
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
Page 100 and 101:
on important issues of the day. Nev
Page 102 and 103:
A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
Page 104 and 105:
The U.S. push for democratic change
Page 106 and 107:
opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
Page 108 and 109:
However, the harmonious world const
Page 110 and 111:
cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
Page 112 and 113:
sonable demands. The CCP, after all
Page 114 and 115:
United States stands for the democr
Page 116 and 117:
to overstep on each other’s inter
Page 118 and 119:
stated in the treaty “with satisf
Page 120 and 121:
of war reparation to Japan followin
Page 122 and 123:
cultural, and historical interests.
Page 124 and 125:
version to conquer independent nati
Page 126 and 127:
• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
Page 128 and 129:
malization of relations with the Un
Page 130 and 131:
the “One-China” principle, whic
Page 132 and 133:
ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
Page 134 and 135:
ing. As China becomes more powerful
Page 136 and 137:
This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
Page 138 and 139:
U.S. aircraft carrier group making
Page 140 and 141:
earlier, it has been conducting thi
Page 142 and 143:
the planned war games, many took th
Page 144 and 145:
field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
Page 146 and 147:
to accept the territorial “spoils
Page 148 and 149:
littoral nations to claim the 200 n
Page 150 and 151:
neighbors, especially the Southeast
Page 152 and 153:
sertive measures to settle the disp
Page 154 and 155:
Philippines’ claimed South China
Page 156 and 157:
Asian Affairs at the National Secur
Page 158 and 159:
audience (there were 27 of them at
Page 160 and 161:
15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
Page 162 and 163:
compromised by recommending claiman
Page 164 and 165:
Indeed, the current fight over thes
Page 166 and 167:
and the handover of those islands t
Page 168 and 169:
for ruling on maritime disputes: on
Page 170 and 171:
Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
Page 172 and 173:
Development takes time. Between now
Page 174 and 175:
• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
Page 176 and 177:
was erected at the Tibet-China bord
Page 178 and 179:
• In October 1950, the newly-foun
Page 180 and 181:
Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
Page 182 and 183:
a statutory position of Special Coo
Page 184 and 185:
equivocally that he does not seek s
Page 186 and 187:
the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
Page 188 and 189:
大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
Page 190 and 191:
U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
Page 192 and 193:
way China develops, and guard again
Page 194 and 195:
• In March 2010, the U.S. State D
Page 196 and 197:
Specifically, they pressed the Chin
Page 198 and 199:
on China on democratic change, dead
Page 200 and 201:
Will China follow the example of U.
Page 202 and 203:
China power transition were to end
Page 204 and 205:
the arms sales business. For all th
Page 206 and 207:
no substitute for the efforts to wi
Page 208 and 209:
With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211:
In addition to these quantitative c
Page 212 and 213:
other items to China that still rem
Page 214 and 215:
ment and containment, with ample ev
Page 216 and 217:
un, this kind of relationship is no
Page 218 and 219:
U.S.-China power transition is a lo
Page 220 and 221:
a preventive war launched by the do
Page 222 and 223:
look Database, April 2010). The Wor
Page 224 and 225:
ary 2006, for a discussion of China
Page 226 and 227:
Chinese critiques of the harmonious
Page 228 and 229:
Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
Page 230 and 231:
year term in prison for what he sai
Page 232 and 233:
66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
Page 234 and 235:
80. See PRC position on this issue
Page 236 and 237:
Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 238 and 239:
The delegates rejected the Soviet a
Page 240 and 241:
York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
Page 242 and 243:
the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
Page 244 and 245:
“Hearing on Maritime Territorial
Page 246 and 247:
the Persian Gulf region will be reg
Page 248 and 249:
our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251:
169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253:
Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255:
190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257:
203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 258 and 259:
213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 260 and 261:
232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263:
APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265:
other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267:
The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269:
Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271:
Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
Page 272 and 273:
State, or in the archipelagic water
Page 274 and 275:
APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277:
APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278:
Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282:
Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284:
U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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