The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

ise of the United States also spanned well over half
a century following its Civil War in the 1860s. China
has a broader base (population in particular) but less
developed economic conditions than most past great
powers. It is reasonable that China has to take more
time to reach its full potential. The first 30 years of
its development and its uneasy interaction with the
United States fit remarkably well with the pattern of
the first trimester of the childbearing process. 2
Since the end of the Cold War, much has changed in
the international system. Along with the rise of China,
we have also witnessed the emergence of other great
powers (discussed in the earlier section of this analysis).
Some argued that the U.S.-led “unipolar moment”
would not last long and predicted an eventual transition
either to a multipolar world with China being one
of the power centers 3 or a change of guard with China
at the helm. 4 Others disputed China’s qualification as
a contender to the U.S.-led international system and
held doubts about the validity of a power transition
between China and the United States. 5 Many simply
took the U.S.-China power transition for granted and
discussed various aspects of the U.S.-China relationship
under the influence of power transition.
This analysis contends that the development of the
other great powers has collectively made the relative
share of the U.S. world power smaller, but the ups and
downs of those other great powers are arguably sideshows
of the evolving international order. China’s rise
is by far the most conspicuous one.
More importantly, China is the one with the potential
and ambitions to become the next No. 1 nation in
the world and has made unremitting efforts to shape
a new international order for the future, although Chinese
leaders have repeatedly denied and downplayed
76