The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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our alliance responsibilities,” quoted in Peter Lee, “High Stakes Gamble as Japan, China and the U.S. Spar in the East and South China Seas,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, 43-1-10, October 25, 2010. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates also echoed the Secretary of State by saying that the United States would honor its military obligation in such a clash. 153. Gao Jianjun (高健军), “从新海洋法看中日东海划界问题” (“China-Japan East China Sea Delimitation in the Context of the New International Law of the Sea”), 太平洋学报 (Pacific Journal), No. 8, 2005. 154. China first introduced its policy of “shelving disputes” on these islands in 1972 by the then Chinese Prime Minister Zhou En-lai during the negotiation for resumption of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. China’s second take on this policy was by the then Vice Prime Minister Deng Xiaoping during his visit to Japan in 1978. See footnote 199 for the references. 155. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, “Press Conference by Minister for Foreign Affairs Seiji Maehara,” October 15, 2010, available from mofa.go.jp/announce/fm_press/2010/10/1015_01.html. 156. Xu Chunliu (徐春柳), “中国海监总队: 将加强对争议海域管辖” (“China’s Ocean Monitoring Command: Will Strengthen Control and Management on Disputed Maritime Territories”), 新京报 (New Capital Daily), October 18, 2008, available from military. people.com.cn/GB/8221/51755/141011/141012/8510843.html. 157. Hai Tao (海涛), “中国巡航钓鱼岛细节: 日方企图 ‘碰撞’ 中国海监船” (“Detail Account of China’s Maritime Surveillance Vessels to Diaoyu Dao: Japan Attempted to ‘Hit’ Chinese Vessels”), 国际先驱导报 (International Herald), December 12, 2008. 158. Xinhuanet, “Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesman: China Will Decide When to Send Monitoring Vessels to Diaoyu Dao,” Press Conference, December 9, 2008, available from news.xinhuanet.com/world/2008-12/10/content_1048425.htm. 159. Qi Lu (齐鲁), “中国海监装备世界先进舰船在全海域定期巡航” (“China’s Marine Surveillance Fleet Gets World Leading- 231
Edge Vessels and Makes Regular Patrol in All China-Ruled Waters”), 兵器知识 (Ordinance), February 27, 2009. 160. China Daily, “Fishery Patrol Vessel Sets out for East China Sea,” November 16, 2010. 161. According to Chinese census 2006, Tibet had a population of 2.81 million. See Chinese Tibet: Facts and Numbers, 2008, available from www.china.com.cn/aboutchina/zhuanti/08xzmx/2008-06/13/ content_15782864.htm. According to China News Net report, at year end of 2009, Xinjiang had a population of 21.59 million, information available from www.chinanews.com/gn/news/2010/01- 26/2093001.shtml. 162. Available from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructure. 163. Available from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment. 164. Available from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reforestation. 165. Available from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education. 166. Zhang Chunxian (张春贤), “张春贤强调: 发展是解决新疆问题的总钥匙” (“Zhang Chunxian emphasizing: Development is the Key of All Keys to Xinjiang’s Problems”), China News Net, May 25, 2010. 167. CNN.com/Asia, “Hu Calls for Reform in China’s Uyghur Region,” August 25, 2009; 中共中央国务院在北京召开第五次西藏工作座谈会 (The CCP Central Committee and the State Council Held the 5th Roundtable Discussion on Tibet in Beijing), Xinhua News Agency, January 22, 2010. 168. China’s White Papers on Tibet are Sixty Years Since Peaceful Liberation of Tibet (2011), Fifty Years of Democratic Reform in Tibet (2009), Protection and Development of Tibetan Culture (2008), Regional Ethnic Autonomy in Tibet (2004), Ecosystem Construction and Environmental Protection in Tibet (2003), Tibet’s March Toward Modernization (2001), Cultural Development in Tibet (2000), New Developments in Human Rights in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (1998), and Tibet—Its Ownership and Human Rights Situation (1992). China’s key claims on Tibet are from these documents. These white papers are available from www.china.org.cn. 232
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
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field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
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U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
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way China develops, and guard again
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• In March 2010, the U.S. State D
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Specifically, they pressed the Chin
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Page 204 and 205: the arms sales business. For all th
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Page 208 and 209: With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
Page 212 and 213: other items to China that still rem
Page 214 and 215: ment and containment, with ample ev
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Page 218 and 219: U.S.-China power transition is a lo
Page 220 and 221: a preventive war launched by the do
Page 222 and 223: look Database, April 2010). The Wor
Page 224 and 225: ary 2006, for a discussion of China
Page 226 and 227: Chinese critiques of the harmonious
Page 228 and 229: Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
Page 230 and 231: year term in prison for what he sai
Page 232 and 233: 66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
Page 234 and 235: 80. See PRC position on this issue
Page 236 and 237: Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 238 and 239: The delegates rejected the Soviet a
Page 240 and 241: York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
Page 242 and 243: the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
Page 244 and 245: “Hearing on Maritime Territorial
Page 246 and 247: the Persian Gulf region will be reg
Page 250 and 251: 169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253: Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255: 190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257: 203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 258 and 259: 213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 260 and 261: 232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263: APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265: other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267: The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269: Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271: Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
Page 272 and 273: State, or in the archipelagic water
Page 274 and 275: APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277: APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278: Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282: Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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