The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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CONTENTS Foreword.....................................................................................v About the Author.................................................................... vii Summary....................................................................................ix 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................... 1 2. THE POWER TRANSITION THEORY ............................5 Another Power Transition in the Making? ....................13 Who Is the Contender?.....................................................17 3. U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: FROM POTENTIAL TO REALITY ...............................29 China’s Tortuous Transition to Modernity....................31 1840-1910: From Misguided Development to Revolution..................................................................... 32 1911-1949: Deadly Contests for the Fate of China........ 38 1949-1978: False Start of Modernization and Self Destruction.........................................................................41 1978-2008: Yangwu All Over Again ...............................44 The China Threat .............................................................. 50 China as a Responsible Stakeholder...............................57 4. THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION ..................................................................75 Possible Outcomes for the U.S.-China Power Transition........................................................................... 81 Deadly Contest for Change?............................................81 A Change of Guard? .........................................................85 Reluctant Accommodations?...........................................86 Flashpoints in the U.S.-China Relations.........................97 Taiwan: Why China Does Not Let It Go?...................... 99 Western Pacific: Troubled Waters?...............................117 What about Tibet and Xinjiang?....................................152 U.S.-China Power Transition: At Odds, But Not at War.................................................................173 China’s Options ...............................................................173 U.S. Options .....................................................................174 Do’s and Don’ts on the Core Interests..........................176 Final Thoughts. ................................................................201 iii
Appendix 1: Selected Articles From the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea Signed in 1982, Came into Effect in 1994.....................................................................................245 Appendix 2: Cairo Declaration............................................ 257 Appendix 3: Potsdam Proclamation ................................... 259 Appendix 4: Treaty of Peace with Japan.............................263 Appendix 5: Treaty of Peace Between the Republic of China and Japan, Signed at Taipei, 28 April 1952.........265 iv
Page 1 and 2: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
Page 3: ***** Comments pertaining to this r
Page 7 and 8: with the United States? How does th
Page 10 and 11: SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
Page 12 and 13: and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
Page 14 and 15: ahead, while the United States shou
Page 16 and 17: provocative acts, adamantly opposes
Page 18 and 19: CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
Page 20: Finally, the next 30 years will be
Page 23 and 24: Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
Page 25 and 26: As a general rule, mature nations m
Page 27 and 28: centuries, periodic internal breaku
Page 29 and 30: However, British power gradually de
Page 31 and 32: aftermath of World War I. President
Page 33 and 34: In retrospect, we can make the argu
Page 35 and 36: malized” Japan (presumably so wit
Page 37 and 38: and China. For centuries, China as
Page 39 and 40: expansion. Russia is not happy with
Page 41 and 42: dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
Page 43 and 44: danger of war because the condition
Page 45 and 46: 21. See a recent analysis of Russia
Page 47 and 48: In the face of these daunting chall
Page 49 and 50: West. This sentiment runs deep and
Page 51 and 52: the changes to China appear nonthre
Page 53 and 54: Unfortunately, the emperor and the
Page 55 and 56:
the Qing started to rock the dynast
Page 57 and 58:
In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
Page 61 and 62:
those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
Page 77 and 78:
now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
Page 102 and 103:
A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
Page 110 and 111:
cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
Page 112 and 113:
sonable demands. The CCP, after all
Page 114 and 115:
United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
Page 144 and 145:
field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
Page 146 and 147:
to accept the territorial “spoils
Page 148 and 149:
littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
Page 172 and 173:
Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
Page 182 and 183:
a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
Page 186 and 187:
the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
Page 188 and 189:
大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
Page 190 and 191:
U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
Page 192 and 193:
way China develops, and guard again
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• In March 2010, the U.S. State D
Page 196 and 197:
Specifically, they pressed the Chin
Page 198 and 199:
on China on democratic change, dead
Page 200 and 201:
Will China follow the example of U.
Page 202 and 203:
China power transition were to end
Page 204 and 205:
the arms sales business. For all th
Page 206 and 207:
no substitute for the efforts to wi
Page 208 and 209:
With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211:
In addition to these quantitative c
Page 212 and 213:
other items to China that still rem
Page 214 and 215:
ment and containment, with ample ev
Page 216 and 217:
un, this kind of relationship is no
Page 218 and 219:
U.S.-China power transition is a lo
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a preventive war launched by the do
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look Database, April 2010). The Wor
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ary 2006, for a discussion of China
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Chinese critiques of the harmonious
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Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
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year term in prison for what he sai
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66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
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80. See PRC position on this issue
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Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 238 and 239:
The delegates rejected the Soviet a
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York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
Page 242 and 243:
the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
Page 244 and 245:
“Hearing on Maritime Territorial
Page 246 and 247:
the Persian Gulf region will be reg
Page 248 and 249:
our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251:
169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253:
Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255:
190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257:
203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 258 and 259:
213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 260 and 261:
232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263:
APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265:
other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267:
The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269:
Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271:
Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
Page 272 and 273:
State, or in the archipelagic water
Page 274 and 275:
APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277:
APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278:
Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282:
Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284:
U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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