The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

Figure 4-1. U.S.-China Power Transition.
By 2050, as projected in Figure 4-1, China’s comprehensive
national power (CNP) 10 is expected to further
narrow its gap with that of the United States. China’s
GDP surpassed that of Japan in August 2010, making
China the second largest economy in the world. But
as shown in Table 4-1, the gap between China and the
United States is still substantial. In the years ahead,
China has a good chance to become the leader in alternative
energy, in science and technology innovation,
and in many other fields. In certain aspects, Chinese
power can surpass that of the United States. Its overall
GDP, for instance, can be bigger than the U.S. GDP.
However, the two nations’ CNP is still not in parity.
Looking at this unstoppable China, many cannot
help but ask: What are we to expect for the U.S.-
China power transition in its second trimester and
beyond? What are China’s intentions? What would
China do with its growing power? Would China follow
Mearsheimer’s prescriptions to push the United
States out of Asia? Would China replace the United
States to become the next superpower of the world,
and along the way, replace the U.S./West-based polit-
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