The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

In retrospect, we can make the argument that the
Cold War was in essence the manifestation of the
deadly power transition between the Soviet Union and
the United States. The inability of either superpower
to gain an overwhelming advantage over the other
could have been a main factor in making the Cold War
such a protracted one. The mutually assured nuclear
destruction could have been a key factor in preventing
the Cold War from turning hot. 17
The Cold War came to an abrupt end with the
disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. The sharp
drop of Soviet power is well-registered in this plot. Its
successor, Russia, was reduced to the second-rank category
afterwards.
Following the fall of the Soviet Union, the United
States was back on top of the world. However, contrary
to the views of many who celebrated the return
of the almighty superpower, but consistent with Kissinger’s
assessment, the U.S. edge over the other great
powers was much smaller. The erosion of the U.S.
dominant position is evident.
Right below the two superpowers, one cannot miss
China. China has such a big power potential that even
before it embarked on its modernization mission in
1978, it had a power base greater than all the other
second-ranked major powers.
China’s population may have been a major factor
in making its big power base. However, India’s population
size does not seem to have the same effect here.
The difference between China and India in the chart is
big and informative—both have potentials, but China
is way ahead of India.
The COW National Material Capabilities data used
in this plot are updated to 2001 (version 3.02). There
could be questions about the validity of these mea-
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