The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fighter Jets There”), 环球时报 (Global Times), June 19, 2009, available from war.news.163.com/09 /06/19/09/5C5NDU7K00011MTO.html; Lang Xianping (朗咸平), “从 ‘搁置争议, 共同开发’ 到 ‘中方搁置, 他国开发’” (“From ‘Shelving Dispute, Joint Development’ to “China Shelving Dispute, Other Nations’ Development’”), 财经论坛 (Financial Forum), September 25, 2010, available from www.infivision.cn/bbs/redirect. php?tid=104664&goto=newpost. 120. Lu Minghui (卢明辉), “南海争端与东南亚国家的扩军” (“South China Sea Disputes and Southeast Asian Nations’ Military Expansion”), 东南亚事务 (Southeast Asian Affairs), No. 4, 2006. 121. Xi Zhigang (席志刚), “中国南海战略新思维” (“New Thinking on China’s South China Sea Strategy”), 谋略天地 (Strategy Corner), February 2010. 122. China News Net (中国新闻网), “中国外交部重申: 在南海坚持 ‘搁置争议共同开发’ 域外势力不应介入南海争议” (“Chinese Foreign Ministry Reaffirms: China Continues the Policy of ‘Shelving-Dispute-Joint-Development,’ Outsiders Should Not Get Involved in the South China Sea Disputes”), available from news.sina.com.cn/c/2010-11-04/003121409374.shtml. Chinese Foreign Ministry Assistant Minister Hu Zhengyao reiterated China’s position on the policy of shelving-disputes-joint-development at an interview with the China News Agency on November 4, 2010. “China Reiterates: China Sticking on ‘Shelving Dispute and Joint Development’,” available from news.sina.com.cn/c/2010-11- 04/003121409374.shtml. 123. Cai Yanhong (蔡岩红), “中国海监执法覆盖全海域, 南海曾母暗沙投放主权碑” (“China’s Ocean Monitoring and Administration Covers All of China’s Territorial Waters, Sign of Sovereignty Was Placed on the James Shoal”), 法制日报 (Rule of Law Daily), February 14, 2011. 124. Cai Penghong (蔡鹏鸿), “美国南海政剖析” (“An Analysis of the U.S. South China Sea Policy”), 现代国际关系 (Contemporary International Relations), No. 9, 2009; Guo Yuan (郭渊), “冷战后美国的南中国海政策” (“U.S. South China Sea Policy in the Post-Cold War Era”), 学术探索 (Academic Inquiry), February 2008; He Zhigong (何志工) and An Xiaoping (安小平), “南海争端中的 225
美国因素及其影响” (“The U.S. Factor in the South China Sea Disputes”), 当代亚太 (Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies), No. 1, 2010; Liu Zhongmin (刘中民), “海权问题与中美关系述论” (“An Analysis of the U.S.-China Relationship and Its Impact on the South China Sea Issues”), 东北亚论坛 (Northeast Asia Forum), Vol. 15, No. 5, September 2006; Liu Zhongmin (刘中民), “海权问题与冷战后的中美关系:矛盾的认知与艰难的选择” (“South China Sea Issues and Post-Cold War U.S.-China Relations: Conflicting Understanding and Difficult Choices”), 外交评论 (Foreign Affairs Review), Issue 85, December 2005; Qiu Danyang (邱丹阳), “中菲南沙争端中的美国因素” (“The U.S. Factor in Sino-Pilipino South China Sea Dispute”), 当代亚太 (Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies), No. 5, 2002. 125. Hu Suping (胡素萍), “冷战以来美国对南海政策的演变, 1950-2004” (“The Evolution of U.S. Policy on the South China Sea, 1950-2004”), 新东方 (The New Orient), No. 5, 2010. Hu mentions in her article that Chinese Foreign Ministry had issued more than 400 protests against the United States between September 1956 and 1970. But Hu provides no source or reference for this number (a common problem with most Chinese publications). 126. Warren Christopher, quoted in A. James Gregor, “Qualified Engagement: U.S. China Policy and Security Concerns,” Naval War College Review, Spring 1999. Gregor states in his article that “U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher reminded the Chinese foreign minister that the United States had treaty obligations with the Philippines.” The reference of this remark is from Indochina Digest, April 21, 1995. 127. An influential piece on the U.S. neutrality on the South China Sea disputes is by Scott Snyder, “The South China Sea Dispute: Prospects for Preventive Diplomacy,” Special Report to the United States Peace Institute, Washington, DC: United States Peace Institute, 1996. 128. Richard Cronin, “Maritime Territorial Disputes and Sovereignty Issues in Asia,” A Testimony before the Senate Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, July 13, 2009; Peter A. Dutton, “China’s Views of Sovereignty and Methods of Access Control,” Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, February 27, 2008; Dan Blumenthal, 226
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
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field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
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U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
Page 192 and 193: way China develops, and guard again
Page 194 and 195: • In March 2010, the U.S. State D
Page 196 and 197: Specifically, they pressed the Chin
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Page 200 and 201: Will China follow the example of U.
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Page 208 and 209: With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
Page 212 and 213: other items to China that still rem
Page 214 and 215: ment and containment, with ample ev
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Page 218 and 219: U.S.-China power transition is a lo
Page 220 and 221: a preventive war launched by the do
Page 222 and 223: look Database, April 2010). The Wor
Page 224 and 225: ary 2006, for a discussion of China
Page 226 and 227: Chinese critiques of the harmonious
Page 228 and 229: Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
Page 230 and 231: year term in prison for what he sai
Page 232 and 233: 66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
Page 234 and 235: 80. See PRC position on this issue
Page 236 and 237: Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 238 and 239: The delegates rejected the Soviet a
Page 240 and 241: York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
Page 244 and 245: “Hearing on Maritime Territorial
Page 246 and 247: the Persian Gulf region will be reg
Page 248 and 249: our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251: 169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253: Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255: 190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257: 203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 258 and 259: 213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 260 and 261: 232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263: APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265: other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267: The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269: Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271: Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
Page 272 and 273: State, or in the archipelagic water
Page 274 and 275: APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277: APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278: Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282: Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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