The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009; Ma Chaoxu (马朝旭), “Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Press Remarks,” Xinhua News Agency, May 6, 2009. 92. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) allows member nations to hold reservations. See Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, “Maritime Claims Reference Manual,” DoD 2005, 1-M, June 23, 2005, for a documentation of the nations signing, ratifying, or rejecting the treaty. The 14 nations that hold reservations are Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Finland, Egypt, Guyana, India, Iran, Kenya, Malaysia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Portugal, and Uruguay. See also Raul Pedrozo, USN Captain, JAGC, “Close Encounters at Sea,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 62, No. 3, Summer 2009. 93. “Testimony of Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs OSD Robert Scher, before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,” February 4, 2010, available from www.uscc.gov/hearings/2010hearings/ written_testimonies/10_02_04_wrt/10_02_04_scher_statement.pdf. 94. Author’s conversation with senior U.S. military leaders. See Eric A. McVadon, “The Reckless and the Resolute: Confrontation in the South China Sea,” China Security, Vol. 5, No. 2, Spring 2009, for an excellent analysis of this issue. 95. U.S. Pacific Command, “Press Roundtable in Beijing, China, by Admiral Timothy J. Keating,” Commander’s Transcript from January 15, 2008, available from www.pacom.mil/web/site_ pages/commander/080115-keating-china.shtml. 96. Shen Dingli (沈丁立), “‘天安’ 号事件搅起我国邻海波澜” (“Cheonan Incident Made a Stir in China’s Neighboring Waters”), 社会观察 (Society Observer), No. 9, 2010; Shi Yongming (时永明), “‘天安号’ 事件与国际危机管理” (“The Cheonan Incident and International Crisis Management”), 和平与发展 (Peace and Development), No. 5, 2010. 97. China and the two Koreas all claim a 200 nautical mile (nm) EEZ. Their claims overlap. A reasonable solution, according to the UNCLOS, is to draw a median line between them. However, the three parties have not yet made such a settlement. 219
98. Luo Yuan (罗援), “中国有五大理由反对美韩黄海军演” (“China Has Five Reasons to Oppose U.S.-South Korean Military Exercise in the Yellow Sea”), 上海新闻晨报 (Shanghai Morning News), July 21, 2010. 99. See Geoff Morrell, Pentagon Press Secretary, “News Briefing,” U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Public Affairs), July 14, 2010, for the Pentagon’s explanation and critiques. 100. See Pentagon’s Annual Reports to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China since 2000. 101. Han Zhenhua (韩振华), 南海诸岛史地研究 (A Study of the History and Geography of the South China Sea Islands), Beijing, China: Social Science Literature Publishing, 1996; Liu Nanwei (刘南威), 中国南海诸岛地名论稿 (A Documentation of the Names of the South China Sea). Beijing, China: Science Publishing, 1996. “Spratly,” “Spratas,” “Paracel,” “Macclesfield,” and so on are European assignments and colonial legacies. See also Chinese Foreign Ministry, “南海诸岛主权问题, (五) 中国对南沙群岛的主权得到国际上的承认” (“The Issue of South China Sea Islands Sovereignty, [5] International Recognition of China’s Sovereignty over the Spratly Islands”), available from www.mfa.gov.cn/chn/pds/ziliao/tytj/t10651. htm. 102. See Sun Donghu (孙东虎), “南海诸岛外来地名的命名背景及其历史影响” (“The Origins of South China Sea Islands’ Foreign Names and Their Historical Influence”), 地理研究 (Geography Studies), No. 2, 2000. 103. The Soviet Union proposed an amendment to Article 2 (b) and (f) as follows: Japan recognizes full sovereignty of the Chinese People’s Republic of China over Manchuria, the Island of Taiwan (Formosa) with all islands adjacent to it, the Penlinletao Islands (Pescadores), the Tunshatsuntao (Pratas islands), as well as over the Islands of Sishatsuntao and Chunshatsuntao (the Paracel Islands), and Nanshatsuntao islands including the Spratlys, and renounces all right, title and claim to the territories named herein. 220
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
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field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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Page 188 and 189: 大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
Page 190 and 191: U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
Page 192 and 193: way China develops, and guard again
Page 194 and 195: • In March 2010, the U.S. State D
Page 196 and 197: Specifically, they pressed the Chin
Page 198 and 199: on China on democratic change, dead
Page 200 and 201: Will China follow the example of U.
Page 202 and 203: China power transition were to end
Page 204 and 205: the arms sales business. For all th
Page 206 and 207: no substitute for the efforts to wi
Page 208 and 209: With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
Page 212 and 213: other items to China that still rem
Page 214 and 215: ment and containment, with ample ev
Page 216 and 217: un, this kind of relationship is no
Page 218 and 219: U.S.-China power transition is a lo
Page 220 and 221: a preventive war launched by the do
Page 222 and 223: look Database, April 2010). The Wor
Page 224 and 225: ary 2006, for a discussion of China
Page 226 and 227: Chinese critiques of the harmonious
Page 228 and 229: Rule by Virtue”), 刊授党校,
Page 230 and 231: year term in prison for what he sai
Page 232 and 233: 66. Dwight D. Eisenhower, The White
Page 234 and 235: 80. See PRC position on this issue
Page 238 and 239: The delegates rejected the Soviet a
Page 240 and 241: York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (
Page 242 and 243: the Mischief Reef and Deploying Fig
Page 244 and 245: “Hearing on Maritime Territorial
Page 246 and 247: the Persian Gulf region will be reg
Page 248 and 249: our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251: 169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253: Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255: 190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257: 203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 258 and 259: 213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 260 and 261: 232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263: APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265: other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267: The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269: Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271: Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
Page 272 and 273: State, or in the archipelagic water
Page 274 and 275: APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277: APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278: Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282: Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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