The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

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York: Metheun, 1982; Li Jinming (李金明), “南海主权争端的现状” (“The Current Status of the South China Sea Disputes”), 南洋问题研究 (Southeast Asian Studies), No. 1, 2002, Wikipedia, “Spratly Islands”; Lu Ning, Flashpoint Spratlys, Singapore: Dolphin Trade Press, 1995. 114. Deng Xiaoping’s first articulation of this policy came in 1978 during his visit to Japan. It was originally proposed to deal with the China-Japan dispute on the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands (see China Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Shelving Disputes, Promoting Joint Development (搁置争议, 共同开发),” available from www.mfa.gov.cn/chn/gxh/xsb/wjzs/t8958.htm). Deng later extended this policy to deal with the South China Sea territorial disputes and to China’s other territorial disputes as well. The China-India border dispute is a case in point. Deng Xiaoping’s talk about this policy is recorded in the “Speech at the Third Plenary Session of the Central Advisory Commission of the Communist Party of China,” Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. III, October 22, 1984. Chinese leaders advocated this policy at various important occasions. For example, Li Peng (李鹏), the Chinese Premier, made the following remarks during his visit to Southeast Asia, “Nansha [Spratly] Islands historically belong to China. However, we have patience on this issue. We will wait for the appropriate time to resolve it. At the moment, we can set it aside. It should not affect China improving relations with those disputant nations.” Answer to press conference, Manila, The Philippines, 人民日报 (People’s Daily), December 15, 1990. 115. See Yang Bo (杨波), “被越南非法侵占的南沙群岛岛礁” (“The Status of Nansha Islands Illegally Occupied by Vietnam”), 兵器知识 (Ordnance Knowledge), 2010, p. 3A. 116. Zheng Zemin (郑泽民), “亚太格局下的南中国海争端” (“South China Sea Disputes in Asia-Pacific”), Dissertation, Central Cadre School of the CCP, May 2004, pp. 111-114; Chen Wei (陈伟), “‘搁置争议, 共同开发’ 在解决南海问题中的困境及展望” (“The Problem and Prospect of the ‘Shelving-Dispute-Promoting Joint Development’ Approach in Settling the South China Sea Problems”), 国际经济 (Global Economy); Lu Xiaowei (吕晓伟), “南海争端的现状,原因及对策” (“The Current Situation of South China Sea Disputes, Reasons and Response”), 当代社科视野 (Contemporary Social Science Perspectives), No. 7-8, 2009; Fang Hui (方 223
辉), “军情观察:中国主权海域一半遭侵占” (“Military Intelligence Observation: Half of China’s Sovereign Ocean Territory Was Occupied”), Xinhuanet, March 3, 2009. 117. See Chinese Foreign Ministry, “搁置争议, 共同开发” (“Shelving Dispute, Pursuing Joint Development”): “搁置争议, 共同开发” 的基本含义是: 第一, 主权属我;第二, 对领土争议, 在不具备彻底解决的条件下, 可以先不谈主权归属, 而把争议搁置起来, 搁置争议, 并不是要放弃主权, 而是将争议先放放一放; 第三, 对有些有争议的领土, 进行共同开发; 第四, 共同开发的目的是, 通过合作增进相互了解, 为最终合理解决主权的归属创造条件 (“The basic components of “Shelving disputes and pursuing joint development” are: first, the sovereign ownership [of the disputed territory] belongs to China; second, with respect to disputed territories that are not ready for complete settlement, China can set aside the discussion of sovereign ownership for the time being and shelve the disputes; shelving the dispute, however, does not mean giving up sovereignty; it only means to set it aside for the time being; third, with respect to the disputed territories, promote joint development; and fourth, the goal of joint development is to promote mutual understanding and create conditions for the eventual settlement of those disputed territories.”) Available from the Chinese Foreign Ministry website, www.mfa.gov.cn/chn/ gxh/xsb/wjzs/t8958.htm. 118. Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. III, Beijing, China: People’s Publishing. See also Luo Yuan (罗援, PLA Major General), “邓小平: 南海的主权问题不容讨论” (“Deng Xiaoping: South China Sea Sovereignty Not Negotiable”), 人民电视 (People TV), July 27, 2010, transcript available from tv.people.com.cn/ GB/14644/135863/12261769.html; Min Hang (闵航), “完整理解邓小平解决海洋争端的战略思想” (“A Thorough Understanding of Deng Xiaoping’s Strategic Thought on Ocean Disputes”), 学习时报 (Study Times), January 11, 2011. 119. Zhang Tiegen (张铁根), “南海问题现状与前瞻” (“South China Sea Problems: Current Status and Prospects”), 亚非纵横 (Asia and Africa Affairs), No. 5, 2009; Li Hongbo (李红波), “解放军上将 [张黎, 全国政协常委] 建议在南沙美济礁修建机场部署战机” (“PLA General [Zhang Li, who is also a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Standing Committee], Suggests Building Airport at 224
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE STRATEGIC STU
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Appendix 1: Selected Articles From
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with the United States? How does th
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SUMMARY This analysis discusses the
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and unexpected challenges. U.S. and
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ahead, while the United States shou
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provocative acts, adamantly opposes
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION We can’t p
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Finally, the next 30 years will be
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Figure 2-1. Structure of Internatio
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As a general rule, mature nations m
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centuries, periodic internal breaku
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However, British power gradually de
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aftermath of World War I. President
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In retrospect, we can make the argu
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malized” Japan (presumably so wit
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and China. For centuries, China as
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expansion. Russia is not happy with
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dissatisfied second-ranked power. I
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danger of war because the condition
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21. See a recent analysis of Russia
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In the face of these daunting chall
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West. This sentiment runs deep and
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the changes to China appear nonthre
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Unfortunately, the emperor and the
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the Qing started to rock the dynast
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In October 1928, the ROC government
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were confident and eager to unleash
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those so-called “leaders of capit
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Figure 3-3. Top Iron/Steel Producti
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system modernization (although the
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cieties, penetrating into economics
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Just as the world was experiencing
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The Coming Conflict with China was
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from the Chinese point of view, the
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States in particular (the Chinese E
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now willingly to become a member of
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coincidence of interests is a matte
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Chinese way of thinking to encourag
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18. Warlords such as Feng Guozhang
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31. See, for example, the United Na
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Mearsheimer’s Presentation at Sha
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58. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao deli
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CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA
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the significance of their ambitions
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ical, economic, security, and cultu
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POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THE U.S.-CHIN
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on important issues of the day. Nev
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A Change of Guard? The peaceful cha
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The U.S. push for democratic change
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opposed Soviet hegemony over the co
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However, the harmonious world const
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cover for the Chinese leaders to pr
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sonable demands. The CCP, after all
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United States stands for the democr
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to overstep on each other’s inter
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stated in the treaty “with satisf
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of war reparation to Japan followin
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cultural, and historical interests.
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version to conquer independent nati
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• The U.S. side declared: The Uni
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malization of relations with the Un
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the “One-China” principle, whic
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ment. The KMT’s landslide victori
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ing. As China becomes more powerful
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This combination of [PLA] rapidly a
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U.S. aircraft carrier group making
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earlier, it has been conducting thi
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the planned war games, many took th
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field Bank (中沙群岛) in the mi
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to accept the territorial “spoils
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littoral nations to claim the 200 n
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neighbors, especially the Southeast
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sertive measures to settle the disp
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Philippines’ claimed South China
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Asian Affairs at the National Secur
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audience (there were 27 of them at
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15th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietna
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compromised by recommending claiman
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Indeed, the current fight over thes
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and the handover of those islands t
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for ruling on maritime disputes: on
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Han Chinese, the ones in Tibet and
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Development takes time. Between now
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• During the Qing Dynasty, the ce
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was erected at the Tibet-China bord
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• In October 1950, the newly-foun
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Deputy Director of the CCP’s Cent
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a statutory position of Special Coo
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equivocally that he does not seek s
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the Chinese, Mongols, and the Turki
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大会 or 世维会). It is an inte
Page 190 and 191: U.S.-CHINA POWER TRANSITION: AT ODD
Page 192 and 193: way China develops, and guard again
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Page 208 and 209: With an adjustment in its national
Page 210 and 211: In addition to these quantitative c
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Page 224 and 225: ary 2006, for a discussion of China
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Page 230 and 231: year term in prison for what he sai
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Page 236 and 237: Xinhua News Agency, March 11, 2009;
Page 238 and 239: The delegates rejected the Soviet a
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Page 244 and 245: “Hearing on Maritime Territorial
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Page 248 and 249: our alliance responsibilities,” q
Page 250 and 251: 169. See also Wangchuk Deden Shakab
Page 252 and 253: Gyaltsen Gyari, “The Way Forward
Page 254 and 255: 190. The Central Tibetan Administra
Page 256 and 257: 203. The highest-ranking Chinese of
Page 258 and 259: 213. Henry Kissinger, On China, New
Page 260 and 261: 232. See Shirley Kan, “U.S.-China
Page 262 and 263: APPENDIX 1 SELECTED ARTICLES FROM T
Page 264 and 265: other activities for the economic e
Page 266 and 267: The continental margin comprises th
Page 268 and 269: Article 77: Rights of the Coastal S
Page 270 and 271: Article 81: Drilling on the Contine
Page 272 and 273: State, or in the archipelagic water
Page 274 and 275: APPENDIX 2 CAIRO DECLARATION 1 Conf
Page 276 and 277: APPENDIX 3 POTSDAM PROCLAMATION 1 D
Page 278: Japan shall be permitted to maintai
Page 281 and 282: Article 3: Japan will concur in any
Page 283 and 284: U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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