The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

expansion. Russia is not happy with its treatment
by the United States and the West. It is determined
to and eventually will restore its great power status.
However, although Russia will be a formidable power
to be reckoned with, it can no longer be a contender
for world leadership—with Soviet-style communism
down the drain, Russia simply has no viable political,
economic, or cultural alternatives to offer the world.
It could follow Germany’s footsteps to make another
try, but it would be doomed to disaster. 21
India will not be a likely contender for world leadership,
either. Although the founder of contemporary
India, Jawaharlal Nehru, claimed that India “must be a
sound great power or disappear,” 22 India has some insurmountable
roadblocks preventing it from reaching
that potential. One is its fragmented internal makeup.
Ethnic and religious fragmentation will keep India as
a weak actor in world politics. Another obstacle is the
conflict with its “separate-at-birth brother,” Pakistan.
And the most difficult barrier is China. As the teaching
of its ancient sage, Kautilya, informs us, India and
China are immediate neighbors and they are natural
enemies. 23 India will need to get distant friends such
as Russia, Japan, and the United States to counterbalance
China (my enemy’s enemy is a friend). That also
makes India a ready candidate for the United States to
recruit in its struggle with China in the power transition.
India’s problem is with China, but China’s problem
is with the United States. India’s problem with
China is bilateral. China’s problem with the United
States is global. In the long run, as Fareed Zakaria puts
it, India will be “a check on China’s rising ambitions,
and a natural ally of the United States.” 24 India is not a
contender for global leadership.
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