The United States and China in Power Transition - Strategic Studies ...

percent of the world’s population, and are all experiencing
rapid economic development; their combined
economies could eclipse the economies of the current
richest countries (the G-7 powers of the United States,
Germany, Japan, Great Britain, France, Italy, and Canada).
Which one of the BRICs is a contender for the next
world leader? Or will the four collectively pursue the
throne? Indeed, the heads of the BRICs have already
held their first summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on
June 16, 2009 and issued a declaration calling for the
establishment of a multipolar world order. 19 In April
2010, the heads of the four nations held their second
summit in Brazil, focusing on issues such as reforming
the global financial system and climate change. Since
2006, BRIC foreign ministers have met annually. Their
financial ministers and heads of central banks have
also held frequent meetings. 20
Although the power transition theory will not rule
out such a possibility, it really is a stretch at this point
to expect the BRICs to take the global lead. There are,
after all, good reasons to disqualify Russia and exclude
India and Brazil as serious contenders for world
leadership.
Russia (through its predecessor, the Soviet Union)
fought and lost the Cold War with the United States.
Unfortunately, the United States and the West have
not been able to transform Russia into a genuine friend
and supporter of the U.S.-led international order. By
many accounts, Russia is a dissatisfied second-ranked
nation. Its transition to democracy is still tenuous.
The United States and the West still hold apprehension
over a resurgent Russia. Indeed, suspicion of the
Russian Bear is a key factor in the U.S.-led drive for
repeated North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
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