PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
The case studies of this chapter show a clear correlation between creativity/productivity
and life span. Yet I would discourage anyone from
rushing to predict his or her own death. One reason is that it is difficult
to make an evaluation and classification of one’s life work in an impartial
way. Another reason is that exceptional circumstances (like those in
the life of Schumann) or complications (like the niche-within-a-niche
situation) can lead to erroneous predictions. The final reason is that
death is not “scheduled” to appear at a particular level of saturation of
one’s potential. The S-curve approaches its ceiling asymptotically; that
is, it needs infinite time to arrive there. The only thing one can say is
that it is unlikely one may die before the 90 percent level.
There is another argument against indulging in predictions of life’s
end: It distracts from the more positive benefit that can be derived from
the fitted smooth natural-growth curve. A study in detail of the agreement
between the curve and the data points can reveal secrets and
suggest interpretations of events during one’s life. Concerning creativity,
the principal value of S-curves may well lie with “predicting” the
past.
101