PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

NOTES AND SOURCES
Prologue
1. Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, William W.
Behrens III, The Limits to Growth, (New York: Universe Books, New York,
1972).
2. Cesare Marchetti, “On 10 12 : A Check on Earth Carrying Capacity for Man.”
Report RR-78-7, May 1978, International Institute of Advanced Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; and in Energy, vol. 4, (1979): 1107–17.
Chapter One: Science and Foretelling
1. James Gleick, Chaos, (New York: Viking, 1988).
2. Spyros Makridakis, et al. “The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series)
Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition,” Journal of Forecasting,
vol.1, no. 2, (1982): 111–53.
3. As cited in Derek J. De Solla Price, Little Science, Big Science...and Beyond
(New York: Columbia University Press, 1986).
4. Elliott W. Montroll and Wade W. Badger, Introduction to Quantitative Aspects
of Social Phenomena, (New York: Gordon and Breach Science
Publishers, 1974).
5. A similar graph has been reported by Cesare Marchetti in 1982. The data
in this graph come from the Statistical Abstract of the United
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