PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

11. FORECASTING DESTINY
Many people besides racecar drivers consider themselves decision
makers. A better name for them would be optimizers. Such a name
would also be more appropriate for marketers and companies’ top executives,
who feel a heavy responsibility for making decisions. The
gravity they see in their actions causes them, at best, anxiety and, at
worst, an ulcer or a heart attack. Yet they behave as optimizers most of
the time. Their job is to stay on the course. To do that they need to make
corrections, like drivers on a highway who are in fact continuously zigzagging
in order to go straight. The best of us may make smaller and
less frequent corrections, but none of us is free to make a sharp turn.
Highway driving is not particularly anxiety provoking. Most of the
time there is little choice. There is both wisdom and comfort in the
whimsical saying, “Rejoice, rejoice, we have no choice.” A leader’s job
to a large extent is to optimize; that is, reduce the amplitude and the frequency
of the corrections to be applied. The burden of such
responsibility is not unbearable. If “decision makers” became more
aware of well-established natural growth processes and of how much
free choice they may not have after all, they would benefit not only
from reduced stress but also from the avoidance of mistakes.
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