PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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APPENDIX C FILLING THE AIDS NICHE IN THE UNITED STATES AIDS victims as a percentage of all deaths 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 APPENDIX FIGURE 5.3 Deaths from AIDS in the United States. The ceiling of the S-curve fitted on data up to and including 1988 (black dots) is 2.3. Data from years 1989–1998 (open circles) confirm that the AIDS niche in the United States was essentially completed by 1995, and began declining from then onward. ∗ ∗ The data have been provided by HIV/AIDS Surveillance, Centers for Disease Control, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, GA; the historical data used for the fit (up to 1988) are as restated in 1993. 299
APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINES APPENDIX FIGURE 6.1 S-curve fits would seem superfluous to this data showing the decline of steam locomotives in the United States and the U.S.S.R. The complimentary rising S-curves for the percentages of the new “species,” diesel plus electric locomotives, are not shown. ∗ ∗ Adapted from a graph by Grubler, reprinted by permission of the publisher from Arnulf Grubler, The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures, 1990, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg. 300
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT consumption d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT compare the d
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT seems to puls
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT spikes stand
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Marchetti fit
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT the predicted
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT according to
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT It is equally
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Finally, ther
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT Ten Years Lat
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT having the th
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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fi
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9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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Ten Years Later 9. REACHING THE CEI
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10 If I Can, I Want Logistic functi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT ability become
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Christopher Co
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The search for
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT look like an S
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT producing chao
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT First commerci
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT In addition to
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT Between two su
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT The state depi
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10. IF I CAN, I WANT to sustain one
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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Page 271 and 272: EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
Page 273 and 274: EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
Page 275 and 276: APPENDICES 273
Page 277 and 278: APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
Page 279 and 280: APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
Page 281 and 282: APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
Page 283 and 284: APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
Page 285 and 286: APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
Page 287 and 288: APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
Page 289 and 290: APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
Page 291 and 292: APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
Page 293 and 294: APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
Page 295 and 296: APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
Page 297 and 298: APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
Page 299 and 300: APPENDIX C 296
Page 301: APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
Page 305 and 306: APPENDIX C 302
Page 307 and 308: APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
Page 309 and 310: APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
Page 311 and 312: APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
Page 313 and 314: APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
Page 315 and 316: APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
Page 317 and 318: APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
Page 319 and 320: APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
Page 322 and 323: NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
Page 324 and 325: NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
Page 326 and 327: NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
Page 328 and 329: NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
Page 330 and 331: NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
Page 332: NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
Page 335 and 336: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute