PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

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8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT The number fifty-six is the only integer which would ensure that lunar phenomena repeated accurately over Stonehenge for several centuries. If Hawkins’ postulations are true, the people of Stonehenge, which was constructed sometime between 1600 and 2000 B.C., through observation of celestial phenomena, had become conscious of a natural clock whose hands make a complete circuit every fifty-six years, ticking away periodic influences on life on earth. Long before I knew of the fifty-six-year cycle I had been intrigued with the possibility that Stonehenge hides secrets. But the mystique around this monument dissipated once I came across Hawkins’ explanation of the Aubrey holes and realized that I had something in common with those prehistoric people. Of course, calendars and stone monuments do not illuminate the causes of the cyclical nature of the human activities charted in this chapter, but all these observations have raised my awareness so that I can now easily recognize events that have occurred, and are likely to recur, at fifty- to sixty-year intervals. 198
9 Reaching the Ceiling Everywhere The first thing physicists do after collecting data is to observe them even before any attempt to analyze or understand them. A great many hidden truths can be inferred, guessed, or at least suggested by just looking at the very first simple representation of the data collected. The usefulness of such an approach in everyday life is often underestimated. The successful repair of a machine or other piece of equipment that has broken down often consists of little more than a thorough inspection. Let us observe, then, the data we have accumulated so far in this book. We have seen man-made objects grow in size, quantity, or market share along S-curves to eventually reach their saturation level. These curves represent natural-growth processes and thus can be extrapolated to time periods for which no data exist. Moreover, we have also seen a fifty-six-year pulsation modulating many human activities and, in particular, the evolution of the economy. What can we learn by a thorough inspection of all these data? Can their understanding and interpretation be of any practical use in evaluating past trends and predicting future ones? I believe they can. Natural-growth processes, such as the construction of highways and the use of automobiles, along with their relationship to the fifty-six-cycle, can demystify a major worldwide economic recession. 199
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PREDICTIONS - 10 Years Later Ten ye
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Copyright © 2002 by Theodore Modis
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CONTENTS Going West 53 Mesopotamia,
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CONTENTS 10. IF I CAN, I WANT 225 W
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PREFACE This book is about seeing t
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PROLOGUE The fisherman starting his
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PROLOGUE analogy between natural la
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PROLOGUE animal population and foll
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PROLOGUE stead; and those who belie
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1 Science and Foretelling A barman
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING prices,
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING the futu
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING Safety i
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING But exam
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING programm
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terpreta
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING On the o
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING terms of
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING THE LAW
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING resolved
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1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING by hard
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2 Needles in a Haystack HOW MUCH OR
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK able to fi
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK LEARNING F
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK Intel’s
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK looks like
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK documentat
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK MESOPOTAMI
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2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK derstandin
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3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMAT
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4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
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5 Good Guys and Bad Guys Compete th
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5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE T
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6 A Hard Fact of Life Natural growt
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE avoid wrong
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE one substitu
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE place in a n
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE DETERGENTS S
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE The percenta
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE During the l
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE Another inno
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE replacement.
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE soldiers opp
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6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE takes place
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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7. COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND T
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY announced i
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The “natu
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY In 1975, as
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY The country
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY feedback me
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY States, rec
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY in 1991 pro
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY least four
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY United Stat
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11. FORECASTING DESTINY which would
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EPILOGUE • • • We are in Cent
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EPILOGUE Fads and media stories abo
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APPENDICES 273
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APPENDIX A The Predator-Prey Equati
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APPENDIX A the two varieties will b
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APPENDIX A By assigning weights to
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APPENDIX B As an example, let us co
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APPENDIX C Additional Figures THE N
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APPENDIX C POPULATIONS OF CARS GROW
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APPENDIX C RAILWAY NETWORKS GROW LI
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APPENDIX C GOTHIC CATHEDRALS APPEND
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APPENDIX C OIL PRODUCTION AND DISCO
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APPENDIX C ERNEST HEMINGWAY (1899-1
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APPENDIX C THE BIRTH RATE OF AMERIC
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APPENDIX C 296
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APPENDIX C WORLD WAR II FAVORED TUB
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APPENDIX C THE EXIT OF STEAM ENGINE
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APPENDIX C THE DESTRUCTION OF THRES
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APPENDIX C WARS MAY INTERFERE WITH
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APPENDIX C COMPETITION BETWEEN TRAN
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APPENDIX C ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO
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APPENDIX C THE GROWTH OF AIR TRAFFI
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APPENDIX C Annual registrations 6,0
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APPENDIX C POPULARIZED DEATHS HAVE
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NOTES AND SOURCES Prologue 1. Donel
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NOTES AND SOURCES the Law Followed
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NOTES AND SOURCES 4. For examples s
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NOTES AND SOURCES bile Road to Tech
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NOTES AND SOURCES 2. For a brief de
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NOTES AND SOURCES Appendix B: Expec
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Bagwell, my initia
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PREDICTIONS â 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute