PREDICTIONS – 10 Years Later - Santa Fe Institute

10. IF I CAN, I WANT
Christopher Columbus also crossed an ocean in 1492. He did it because
he could, but in addition, and without being conscious of it, he
was conforming to a necessity dictated by Europe’s deeply rooted need
to explore whatever lay westward from its known boundaries. When he
sailed he was unaware of his contribution to the 150-year-long exploration
process already started 50 years earlier with several unsuccessful
attempts. As we saw in Chapter Two, the overall learning process in
Europe reached completion toward the end of the sixteenth century and
because Columbus participated in that process, he was an explorer, not a
tourist—a distinction that I will try to make clear.
Exploring is a process that follows a learning curve. It has a rate
that goes through a life cycle. Making discoveries is characterized by
an element of competition. It is being first that counts, just as with
the breaking of a record. Once discovered, the same location can no
longer serve as an object for exploration. As the opportunities for
exploration become exhausted, competition for them leads to saturation.
In contrast, there is no competition and practically no saturation in
tourism. The same places are visited over and over again. The rate here
grows quickly to reach the limits of transport capacity, accommodations,
and so forth. But from then on, fluctuations in the numbers of
visitors are purely statistical. This is what happened with the expeditions
on the Matterhorn discussed in Chapter Two. The first ones carried out
by courageous mountaineers constitute explorations because they contributed
in the knowledge we have about this mountain. Today’s regular
excursions by groups of visitors constitute pure tourism. There are no
learning curves behind being a tourist; it is solely governed by the ergodic
theorem. The ability to be a tourist is the most profound reason
for becoming one.
THE NUTRITIONAL VALUE OF NEW IMPRESSIONS
Explorers and tourists share a passion: a thirst for new impressions. At
first glance, the search for new impressions may appear to be a part of
recreation. A change of scenery is usually agreeable and makes one feel
refreshed. Peter Ouspensky argues, however, that new impressions have
the highest nutritional value and can be considered as an indispensable
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